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Inflation won’t deter tourists this Thanksgiving

Diana Testa Cassidy of Bermuda, formerly of Austintown, waits for her luggage Thursday afternoon in Boston Logan International Airport after flying from Cleveland for a weekend trip with her sister. Staff photos / Allie Vugrincic

Prices are high, but that won’t stop people from going places this Thanksgiving.

Travel over the holiday weekend is expected to hit about 98 percent of its prepandemic levels, which may make 2022 the third-busiest year for Thanksgiving weekend travel since 2000.

The American Automobile Association, better known as AAA, predicts that some 54.6 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home between Wednesday and Sunday. As in years past, most travelers — around 49 million — will drive to their destinations.

All the while, gas prices remain above $3 nationwide, and inflation continues to drive up prices across the board.

Albert Sumell, professor of economics at Youngstown State University, said the high volume of travel occurring in concert with high costs shows that there is both a decrease in supply and increase in demand in the travel market.

The national average price per gallon of gas on Saturday was $3.684, while the Ohio average was $3.612, with Trumbull and Mahoning counties just under that at $3.504 and $3.496 respectively, according to AAA.

Sumell said factors such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a cut in production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have driven up gas prices — but, this is also the first holiday season where people are behaving as if the COVID-19 pandemic is over, Sumell said.

“So you have all of this essentially pent-up demand from consumers who maybe in 2021 and 2020 did not travel because of the pandemic and the restrictions, are now excited and willing to travel,” Sumell said.

Those excited travelers may not be deterred by inflation. Wholesale inflation for October rang in at 8 percent, down slightly from September’s 8.4 percent.

The cost of hotels and air travel also went down by 0.1 percent in October, the first drop since November 2020.

AIR TRAVEL

Air travel is expected to be up from last Thanksgiving, with about 4.5 million Americans flying — an increase of more than 330,000 people, despite airfares being higher than last year.

Government data shows that airfares in October were up 43 percent from a year earlier, and U.S. airlines reported a combined profit of more than $2.4 billion in the third quarter.

Part of the reason for high fares is that airlines still are operating fewer flights than in 2019 even though passenger numbers are nearly back to prepandemic levels. U.S. airlines this October operated 84 percent as many flights as October 2019. Airlines, however, are on average using bigger planes with more seats, which partially offsets the reduction in flights.

The busiest days to fly are usually the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Sunday following Thanksgiving, which historically is the busiest travel day of the year, according to Cleveland Hopkins International Airport.

Local travelers looking to book a last-minute flight out of Cleveland to an East Coast destination can expect to pay upward of $330 to travel Wednesday to Sunday without a checked bag. To head out West, flying economy without a checked bag likely will begin between $400 and $600, depending on the destination.

Those who are flying can expect longer lines at ticket counters and security checkpoints and should arrive at the airport at least two hours before their flight’s scheduled departure.

There is some good news for Thanksgiving air travelers, though — according to the Transportation Security Administration, air passengers can fly with turkey, stuffing, pies, green beans and mac ‘n’ cheese in carry-on bags.

Ice also is permitted — if it stays frozen throughout a trip. The Federal Aviation Administration does allow up to five pounds of dry ice in a properly marked package, but individual airlines have the final say about what is allowed on their planes, according to the TSA.

OTHER TRANSPORTATION

AAA also expects some 1.4 million people to get out of town by bus, train or cruise ship, which will be a roughly 23 percent increase from 2021.

The large numbers of people taking to the roads and the skies are expected to come in just under 2005 and 2019, the two busiest years for Thanksgiving travel since AAA started tracking in 2000.

Sumell said that if prices stay high going into next year, the numbers of people traveling likely will drop.

“Generally, the prices are always determined by demand relative to supply, and we just have a kind of unique situation this year,” he said.

He said that over time, consumers will get priced out of traveling, decreasing the demand. Eventually, the market will adjust and head for an equilibrium.

In the meantime, if you are hitting the road this holiday weekend, the best times to drive will be before 8 a.m. or after 8 p.m. Wednesday, before 11 a.m. and after 6 p.m. Thursday before 11 a.m. and after 8 p.m. Friday and Sunday, and before 2 p.m. and after 8 p.m. Saturday, according to AAA.

The worst times are expected to be 11 a.m. to 8 p.m. Wednesday, 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. Thursday, and 4 to 8 p.m. Friday through Sunday.

The top 10 most visited Thanksgiving destinations are expected to be Orlando, Fla.; Anaheim, Calf.; Las Vegas; New York City; Atlanta; Phoenix, Ariz.; Dallas or Fort Worth, Texas; Denver, Colo.; Chicago and Charlotte, N.C.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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