State legislative redistricting likely removed the competitiveness in most of the Ohio House and Senate races in the Mahoning Valley for the November 2024 election.

But the Valley will have two contested Republican primaries March 19, including one that pits two incumbents against each other.

That particular primary is for the GOP nomination in the 32nd Ohio Senate District, which includes all of Trumbull and Ashtabula counties and most of Geauga County.

Incumbent state Sen. Sandra O’Brien of Lenox faces state Rep. Mike Loychik of Bazetta. The winner will run against Democrat Michael Shrodek of Warren in November.

Loychik opted not to seek reelection to his 65th Ohio House District seat after his fellow Republicans made major changes to its boundaries.

The Ohio Redistricting Commission added a number of Democratic communities in Trumbull County to the district. More important to Loychik’s political future, the commission put a larger portion of Ashtabula County into the 65th.

Trumbull County still has more population in the district than Ashtabula County, but the change made it much more friendly for a candidate of note from the latter county to run.

Don’t think this was an accident, as Loychik drew the ire of his fellow Republicans by backing Jason Stephens, R-Kitts Hills, for Ohio House speaker when a majority of the GOP House members backed Derek Merrin, R-Monclova, for the job. Stephens got elected thanks to 22 votes from Republicans — including Loychik and state Rep. Al Cutrona, R-Canfield — and the Democrats in the House’s superminority.

The district went from favoring Republicans by about 24% based on partisan statewide voting trends during the past decade to 14.5%, which is still an easy win for that party’s nominee.

When Ashtabula County Auditor David Thomas, a Republican of Jefferson, filed, Loychik suddenly faced a significant challenge for reelection. In the 2022 election, Democrats didn’t have a candidate in the 65th and Loychik easily beat an independent for his second two-year term.

With the district changes, Loychik decided to take on O’Brien for the state Senate seat.

Go big or go home.

O’Brien is well known in Ashtabula County, serving as its auditor for 12 years and piling up big numbers there in 2020 to win the state Senate seat, though Trumbull County is the district’s most-populous county. The district favors Republicans by 10.5% based on partisan voting trends during the past decade.

Thomas will face Laurie Magyar of Williamsfield in the Republican primary March 19.

Trumbull County Democratic Party Chairman Mark Alberini said Abby Kovacs of Jefferson committed to running as the party’s nominee in the 65th, but didn’t file.

Kovacs was the Democratic nominee in the 99th District in 2022, but had to withdraw after winning the uncontested primary because legislative redistricting moved her mailing address a few feet from that district’s boundaries.

Two important dates on the election calendar are Jan. 8, which is the filing deadline for write-in candidates, so the Democrats can possibly get a candidate for the 65th seat, and March 18, the day before the partisan political primaries, is the last day for independent candidates to file for the general election.

The Valley’s lone competitive legislative seat is the 64th Ohio House District, with state Rep. Nick Santucci, R-Howland, being challenged by Lauren A. Matthews, a Warren Democrat and Trumbull County Democratic Party volunteer.

The district favors Democrats by about 2.5% based on partisan voting trends. The district favored Democrats by almost 10% in 2022 and Santucci won by 1.8% over Democrat Vincent Peterson II.

In the 58th Ohio House District race, incumbent state Rep. Lauren McNally, D-Youngstown, is unopposed.

Jennifer J. Ciccone of Poland, who lost the Struthers Municipal Court race by 10.2% and complained about the outcome being rigged, was the lone Republican to file for the seat. Facing backlash over how she handled her judicial defeat, Ciccone withdrew leaving Republicans without a candidate.

The party can file a write-in candidate, but redistricting made the district a strong Democratic one. It favors Democrats by 21%, compared to 3% for McNally’s current district.

The race in the 59th District pits Cutrona against Democrat Jennifer Schaeffer, a Beloit village councilwoman.

While Cutrona’s Ohio House speaker vote angered several Republicans, redistricting changed the district he represents from a true toss-up to one that favors Republicans by more than 12%. When it was a toss-up, Cutrona won it in 2022 by 13.4%.

dskolnick@vindy.com