In 2020, we saw a generational opportunity to grow our economy based on the number of leads for economic development projects. That year, nearly 60 leads startled us.

By the way, in 2020 we also received one lead for what’s called a mega project–think Ultium Cells’ $2 billion investment and more than 1,000 jobs. We used to get about one every other year.

We were told this level of activity would sustain itself for years. So, we made population and talent expansion our No. 1 priority and housing expansion our No. 2 priority.

We didn’t sustain this level of interest.

In 2021, we received more than 60 leads, including three for mega projects. In 2022, we received nearly 70 leads, including seven for mega projects. And in 2023, we received more than 80 leads, including 18 for mega projects. That validated our decision to shift priorities.

Let’s look at our success growing talent.

From 2008 to 2020, while the rest of the country recovered from the Great Recession, we lost 35,000 workers. If you go back to the turn of the century, we lost 50,000 workers.

Now, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, our labor force grew three years in a row for the first time since the 1990s.

Let’s look at our success growing population.

Breaking it down by decades, we suffered deep losses in the 1980s, stabilized in the 1990s and then sustained steep losses in the first two decades of this century. According to the 2020 census, we lost 7.35 people per day, every day, 365 days a year, for 40 years.

Now, we think we grew population two years in a row for the first time since the 1970s.

We say we think because there’s some variation in the population data, depending on the source. According to MacroTrends, a reliable source, the Youngstown metro area grew 0.28% in both 2024 and 2025.

But even if we use U.S. Census Bureau data, in 2024 Trumbull County’s population remained flat and Mahoning County’s dropped a mere 0.1%. And according to the Census Bureau, in 2024 we experienced a net positive migration. Yes, more people moved into the Valley than moved out; it’s just not quite enough to offset our births vs. deaths ratio.

Specifically, the net migration in the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman metropolitan statistical area was a gain of 1,251 people; the natural change (deaths minus births) was a loss of 1,489. Our net migration outperformed Ohio as a whole.

Now let’s talk about Cotality. You might know it has CoreLogic, which has been rebranded.

Cotality is a global information services company that specializes in property data using billions of

real-time data sets. Cotality has 5,000 employees in dozens of cities across multiple continents. Those employees are housing economists, data scientists, technologists and other experts. Cotality is the most trusted source in real estate.

In its rankings of “hottest” real estate markets in the U.S., the Mahoning Valley is No. 1.

Now let’s talk about Area Development Magazine. This is the leading publication for corporate site selection and relocation. In its annual ranking of leading metros, it looks at “fundamentals that matter most to business expansion” using 24 economic and workforce indicators in eight data sets.

Area Development looks at 1-, 3- and 5-year changes with weight applied to the 5-year. Here’s why this is important.

We usually dismiss rankings from sources like WalletHub because they measure flashes in the pan. I use a sports analogy. If our team was 1-9 last season and 2-8 this season, WalletHub might say we’re the best team in the league because we’re the only one that had a 100% increase in wins. We’re still losers.

By weighting the five-year data, Area Development is measuring sustainability.

Now think about its audience. They’re advising clients on where to spend billions of dollars building factories, warehouses, R&D facilities and other large facilities. They take years to build. They want to be operational for decades. So, Area Development measures sustainability.

Out of 123 medium metros in the U.S., the Valley is the No. 7 best economic performer.

Out of 411 total metros, the Valley is No. 23.

I never imagined I would one day talk about the Valley having the hottest real estate market or 23rd healthiest economy. I feel like Tommy Lasorda when the great Dodgers manager was asked what he feared most.

My biggest fear is that my mother is going to walk into my bedroom and say, “Wake up, Guy, it’s time to go to school.”

Guy Coviello is president and CEO of the Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber.