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Don’t expect big August turnout

Turnout for nonpresidential elections is usually poor, but those who come out for August special elections take that percentage to a new level of bad.

Last year’s August special primary election for state legislative seats became necessary after the Ohio Supreme Court ruled the Ohio Redistricting Commission violated the state constitution by drawing gerrymandered General Assembly maps. Statewide turnout was 8 percent.

The Republican-controlled Legislature voted in December to eliminate all August elections except if a local government or school district in fiscal emergency wanted to put a tax levy on the ballot or if there needed to be a special primary for a vacant U.S. House seat.

The contention was the August elections were used by governments and school districts to sneak tax issues by voters who weren’t aware of the measures being on a ballot as Ohioans rarely vote that time of the year.

While the Legislature was voting to get rid of August elections, a number of Republican members also were working to get an issue on the May 2 primary ballot to make it harder to amend the state constitution.

The proposal would increase the threshold to pass a constitutional amendment from a simple majority to 60 percent. It didn’t come up for a vote in the Legislature’s lame duck session in December, but there later was a movement to get it on the Aug. 8 special election ballot.

That seemed like an odd decision as the General Assembly had just voted to get rid of those elections except under very specific circumstances.

But the likelihood of an issue on the Nov. 7 ballot to allow abortions in Ohio played a significant factor in the rush to put the 60 percent proposal on the August ballot. The Ohio Senate quickly approved legislation, and while the Ohio House slow-walked it, the proposal was approved May 10 — the last possible day to get it on that August ballot.

In the latest email newsletter from the Trumbull County Republican Party, Chairman Mike Bollas wrote that the current simple majority “leaves the door open for well-funded special interest groups to come into our state and pass constitutional amendments that will change the lives of future generations. Raising the threshold to 60 percent is also the single greatest tool that we, as a pro-life party, have to defend unborn babies.”

It’s been reported that Richard Uihlein, a wealthy Republican from Illinois, gave $1.1 million to a political action committee that ran commercials to pressure Republican state legislators to support increasing the threshold in Ohio.

Before the House vote, Secretary of State Frank LaRose told me that a statewide constitutional amendment will be hard to ignore, unlike a school or park district levy.

“There will not be an opportunity to be unaware of the fact that there is a statewide constitutional question on the ballot,” he said. “There will be potentially millions of dollars for it, millions of dollars against it, great reporting by the press.

“Unless you choose to ignore and live in a cave, there will not be any Ohioan by August who won’t be aware that there is a constitutional question on the ballot,” LaRose said.

Even if that turns out to be true, turnout is likely to be poor. Most people aren’t accustomed to August elections. It’s also debatable whether those who are pro-life or pro-choice will understand the ramifications of the threshold vote and may skip it.

The only time there was a statewide constitutional amendment for consideration on an August ballot in Ohio was 97 years ago.

Cleveland.com reported last week that Mitch Tulley, Ohio Republican Party’s political director, told party officials on a conference call about the Aug. 8 election: “It’s going to be low turnout. That’s just an inherent problem with special elections. It’s going to be incumbent on all of us on this call and all of our friends, family contacts, other Republican activists and volunteers, to make sure that we’re getting out the vote and making sure we’re turning out as many people as humanly possible.”

Similar abortion measures in other states — Kansas, Michigan and Kentucky — had the majority support of voters, but all failed to reach 60 percent.

Also, polling in Ohio by The Associated Press shows that 59 percent of the state’s voters say abortion should generally be legal.

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