Staff photo / Guy Vogrin Tylon Johnson of Youngstown wears his face mask while walking through downtown Youngstown and checking his cellphone. Health leaders urge wearing masks when you are within 6 feet of people outdoors.

About 38 percent of all confirmed COVID-19 cases in Mahoning County are in three ZIP code areas that include most of Boardman, Austintown and Canfield.

Meanwhile, 31 percent of all confirmed cases in Trumbull County are in the three ZIP codes that include Howland, Liberty and a large portion of Warren.

But Ryan Tekac, Mahoning County health commissioner, said it doesn’t mean a person is more likely to contract the virus there.

“The data doesn’t tell the full story,” he said.

“Let’s say I work in Austintown and stop at Giant Eagle in Canfield, and I live in Boardman. I get counted as a positive case in Boardman. It doesn’t mean I got it in Boardman,” he said. “You can be traveling these days. You can go to a wedding in Cincinnati, and cases are considered by my residence.”

Frank Migliozzi, Trumbull County health commissioner, doesn’t disagree with Tekac, but added that the ZIP code data is an indication that a certain area could be a hot spot.

“A positive person gives it to a family member or a friend who goes to their house, so it has some importance,” he said. “But with the mobility of our society, it’s everywhere. People need to understand that there is community spread. People need to understand that when they are in a mass setting of more than 10 individuals they need to do the things spelled out by the state and the governor: practice social distancing, wear masks when you’re within 6 feet of people (outdoors) and keep your hands clean.”

MAHONING COUNTY

It’s logical that 44512 (most of Boardman), 44515 (most of Austintown) and 44406 (Canfield) are the top three ZIP codes for COVID-19 cases in Mahoning County. These are among the most-populous ZIP code areas in the county, Tekac said.

Also, a high number of cases in Boardman and Austintown occurred in long-term care facilities.

The 44512 ZIP code reported 442 cases, including 148 in long-term care facilities, while 44515 had 298 cases with 83 in long-term care facilities, and 44406 had 215 cases including 29 in long-term care facilities, according to data compiled by the county’s public health district.

“Those are some of the most-populated areas, so we would expect them to have the most cases,” Tekac said. “We put the ZIP code data out there so people know where the cases are, but it’s not necessarily where they got it.”

He added: “People still need to take the precautions of washing their hands, social distancing and wearing masks. People can get this from anywhere and don’t know where they got it in some cases. People have parties at their houses or show up to a wedding and don’t feel well. We stress people to please stay home.”

The 44512, 44515 and 44406 ZIP codes are second, third and fourth, respectively, in the number of COVID-19 deaths in Mahoning County.

In 44512, there have been 47 fatalities with 38 at long-term care facilities.

In 44515, there have been 30 deaths with 23 at long-term care facilities.

In 44406, there have been 21 deaths with 14 in long-term care facilities.

The top location for COVID-19 deaths is the 44672 ZIP code, where Sebring is located.

There have been 49 COVID-19 deaths in that ZIP code with 47 of them in long-term care facilities. But it is seventh in the county in cases with 147, including 115 in long-term care facilities.

“They had an outbreak at one of their nursing homes (Crandall Medical Center) and if you pull those cases, then there is not a community spread” in Sebring, Tekac said.

While the county lists 115 cases in long-term care facilities in the 44672 ZIP code, the most recent data from the Ohio Department of Health reports 150 cases at Crandall’s nursing home and another 19 at its assisted living facility.

The ZIP code with the fourth-most cases is 44514 (Poland) with 198 cases including 25 in long-term care facilities.

In fifth is 44511 (which includes parts of Youngstown’s West and South Sides, near Mill Creek Park, and nearby sections of Austintown and Boardman) with 169 cases including eight in long-term care facilities, and in sixth is 44505 (most of Youngstown’s North Side with a part of the East Side) with 162 cases including nine in long-term care facilities.

In eighth is 44509 (which includes parts of Youngstown’s West Side) with 144 cases including 51 in long-term care facilities.

Mahoning provides its ZIP code statistics about twice a week.

TRUMBULL COUNTY

The Trumbull County Combined Health District doesn’t keep track of deaths by ZIP code because it doesn’t have access to that data, Migliozzi said.

Also, Trumbull only calculates the number of COVID-19 cases by ZIP code once a month, according to Johnna Ben, the district’s administrative coordinator. The only public report was provided July 27.

The Trumbull district also doesn’t list cases at long-term care facilities by ZIP code.

Comparing Ohio Department of Health data with the ZIP code locations in Trumbull, however, shows that four of the top six ZIP codes for COVID-19 in the county have numerous cases at long-term care facilities. The ZIP code with the seventh-most cases is the home of a state prison.

Migliozzi said people should be concerned about community spread because there’s been a switch since about mid-June with cases decreasing in congregate settings, such as nursing homes, and increasing in the general population.

“There’s been a significant shift from being congregate to noncongregate,” he said.

The top three ZIP codes for COVID cases in Trumbull are 44483 (the north side of Warren and Champion) with 157, 44484 (Howland and much of southeast Warren) with 118, and 44505 (Liberty) with 109.

Those three ZIP codes are among the most populous in Trumbull County though ODH recently reported Windsor House at Liberty Health Care Center in the 44505 ZIP code had 56 COVID-19 cases, and in the 44482 ZIP code Windsor House of Champion had 38 cases and Windsor Armstrong Memory Assisted Living had 34.

In fourth is 44420 (Girard and McKinley Heights) with 99 cases and 44438 (Masury) is in fifth with 97 cases. The ODH a few days ago reported 56 cases at Addison Healthcare Center and 22 at the O’Brien Memorial Nursing Home, both in Masury.

The 44446 ZIP code (Niles and a portion of Weathersfield) is sixth with 93 cases. Continuing Healthcare at the Ridge in that ZIP code had 43 cases, according to the ODH.

The 44430 ZIP code is seventh with 91 cases. It’s the location of the Trumbull Correctional Institution. ODH lists 83 inmates at that prison as either having COVID-19 or having recovered from it. It had 72 cases at the time of the county health district’s report.

The 44485 ZIP code (the west side of Warren) is eighth in Trumbull County with 84 cases.

dskolnick@tribtoday.com