Economic indicators have not treated us kindly.

According to the 2020 census, the Youngstown-Warren-Bordman metropolitan statistical area lost 8.35 people per day, every day, 365 days a year, for 10 years.

According to recent data, Youngstown had the highest poverty rate in Ohio, and Warren was No. 2. In 2020, the Wall Street Journal highlighted our entire MSA as being among the most impoverished in the U.S., pointing out poverty is not confined to our urban cores.

And, according to employment statistics, as we continue to get older and poorer, our labor force has shrunk by 34,000 workers, or 13%, since 2012.

If this was a novel, it would be a tragedy. But this is merely the low point – a chapter, if you will – in a much bigger story.

The bigger story has a separate plot line that goes like this …

As part of the Youngstown / Warren Regional Chamber’s economic development work in partnership with Team NEO on the regional level and JobsOhio on the state level, we count leads for economic development projects. These are companies inquiring about expanding in or relocating to our market. In 2020, we fielded about 55 leads, including one for a mega project.

Mega projects, by the way, are defined by the Ohio law as creating more than 1,000 jobs and generating more than $1 billion of investment. For a long time, we received about one every other year.

Those 2020 numbers are pretty typical. Then came 2021. That year, we saw about a 20% increase in leads, and we tripled, to three, the number of leads for mega projects. It started looking like the global supply chain flaws exposed by COVID-19 were resulting in corrective actions in the economic development world.

Then came 2022. That year, we saw about another 20% increase in leads, and we more than doubled, to seven, the number of leads for mega projects. That theory about fixing the flaws in the global supply chain? That’s no theory. We now realized we are in a COVID-calibrated economy, and the Mahoning Valley is a beneficiary.

Then came 2023. Through three quarters this year, we already passed the number of leads for all of 2022, and, we almost doubled, to 18, the number of mega project leads as the previous three years combined.

I admit, leads are merely opportunities, and mega leads are merely mega opportunities. Opportunity, like potential, is one of those words that doesn’t really mean anything until it becomes reality.

Here’s a dose of reality.

We completed one of those mega projects — Ultium Cells – for $2.3 billion of investment and more than 1,000 jobs. Since COVID-19, we’ve seen seven other mega projects completed within a one-day truck drive of the Valley. That includes the Intel microchip factory outside of Columbus, which at $20 billion is the largest economic development project in the state’s history. It also includes the Micron chip campus of factories near Syracuse, which at $100 billion makes Intel sound like a mini mart.

The significance of being a one-day truck drive from these mega projects is that we’re in the supply chain sweet spot. And we haven’t felt the supply chain impact, yet all of these projects were completed after COVID-19 and are still under construction.

Our Valley is changing.

According to the U.S. News and World Report, the Youngstown-Warren metro is the 62nd-best place to live in the United States based on an analysis of the largest 150 metros. What’s impressive is how extensively the report delved. It looked at crime, housing affordability, health care, density of restaurants and drinking establishments, even climate. What I like most is that it considered the results of a nationwide survey asking people their opinions on good places to live.

According to USA Today, our MSA has the highest percentage (74%) of millennial homeowners in the U.S. That means the most important demographic for our current and future workforce is choosing us when making decisions of permanence.

Now let’s review all those unkind economic indicators from the low point of our story and compare them to year-over-year 2021 data from Deloitte.

Massive population decline? In 2021, our population increased. It’s only one year. It’s not by a lot. But given everything else we’re seeing around the COVID-calibrated economy, we have good reason to be excited.

Poverty? From 2020 to 2021, the poverty rate in the Valley declined by 2%. Again, this is only one year, but 2% is significant.

Employment? We added about 2,000 people to our labor force.

Age? While the median age nationally increased, the median age in the Valley decreased.

The moral of this story? The Valley really is an ideal place in which to live, learn, work and play.

Guy Coviello is president & CEO of the Youngstown / Warren Regional Chamber.