A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland delivered some unsettling news as we roll toward the holiday season. Indicators suggest there is a 24% chance the U.S. economy was in recession last month.

The Cleveland Fed represents Ohio and parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky, where the Ohio Capital Journal noted there have been a number of worrying indicators. Credit card debt is rising faster in Ohio than in all but four other states. We had the fifth-highest unemployment rate in the country in August (the Capital Journal notes “despite years of spending billions on taxpayer-financed incentives to attract jobs”). In fact, hiring across the country has slowed dramatically, with a Harris Poll for Bloomberg News in late October showing 55% of Americans are worried about losing their jobs.

Major banks across the country have predicted high odds of a recession, according to the Capital Journal, with worries that tariffs could feed into stagflation (meaning weak economic growth at the same time as high inflation).

In fact, published reports suggest members of the Trump administration believe parts of our economy ARE already in recession, and they would like the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates — again.

What this means for Ohioans who had to wait until mid-month to receive delayed federal food benefits, or perhaps wondering whether they will be able to afford any extras to make the upcoming holidays special is yet to be seen.

But it seems as though our region must be prepared for the possibility of less-than-smooth sailing while our economy continues to flail.

Will that spur economic development officials to change their approach, or lawmakers to focus on what really matters to (and will help) Ohioans? Or will they continue to hand over money that isn’t theirs and focus on absurd socio-cultural efforts that help absolutely no one?

As we head into the 2026 elections, many of these folks have a choice about how they say they will do their job for Ohioans. Let us hope they choose us over themselves.