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Gerrymandering and money -- largely provided by special interest groups -- mean there will be very few competitive state legislative races in Ohio, or the country for that matter.
It's no different in the Mahoning Valley.
When the Ohio Redistricting Commission -- consisting of five Republicans and two Democrats -- unanimously approved the state Legislature maps in September 2023, its members gave the Mahoning Valley only one competitive district among the five House and two Senate seats in its boundaries.
That contested seat is the 64th Ohio House District with state Rep. Nick Santucci, R-Niles, seeking his third two-year term on the Nov. 3 ballot.
The district slightly favors Republicans based on statewide partisan election results during the previous decade.
But no Democrat filed for the seat and Michael Philip Walton, who tried to run as an independent, was not certified to the ballot because he didn't have enough valid signatures.
That leaves Santucci running unopposed in a district that includes Warren, Howland, Niles, Weathersfield, Bristol, Champion, Farmington, West Farmington, Leavittsburg, Newton, Newton Falls, Lordstown and Warren Township.
The only Ohio House district drawn to heavily favor Democrats is the 58th, which is currently represented by state Rep. Lauren McNally, D-Youngstown. McNally isn't seeking reelection to the House and is instead the Democratic candidate for Mahoning County commissioner.
John Boccieri of Poland, a former congressman and state legislator, handily won the three-person Democratic primary for the seat.
The district favors Democrats by about 20%, based on statewide partisan election results during the past decade, and includes Youngstown, Austintown, Poland, Jackson, Lowellville, Milton, Craig Beach and Coitsville.
Boccieri raised about $90,000 for his campaign, most of it from political action committees, between the time he announced his candidacy in late January until June 5, the last day of the postprimary reporting deadline.
His Republican challenger, Heather Fronk of Poland, has never run for elected office before. Fronk raised about $29,000 as of June 5, with a majority of it coming from state Sen. Al Cutrona's campaign committee. She's certainly raised more money since then, but the next campaign finance reports aren't due until Oct. 22.
The Ohio House Republican Organizational Committee, the campaign arm of the Ohio House Republican Caucus, is giving Fronk support by texting ads attacking Boccieri.
OHROC has more money than it knows what to do with, but the attack against Boccieri is over data centers. It's definitely an unpopular issue with voters, but, to be kind, the ad is disingenuous.
It opens with an evil laugh in a smoke-filled room with the top guy saying: "John Boccieri's running again. He wants back in the club. Only if he votes our way -- protect the data center tax break like we did."
A voiceover says: "They opposed the bill that would have ended the data center tax break. Every one of them voted no. Now they're supporting his campaign. Data centers win. You pay the bill." Then an ominous "John Boccieri. He's back in the club" is shown.
The guy playing Boccieri looks just like him.
The ad leaves out the fact that Republicans voted to create the data center tax breaks over a decade ago that cost about $2 billion last year in state and local sales taxes. It was $722 million in 2024.
Also, Republican legislators in June had the opportunity to reduce the size of new tax breaks and chose not to vote on it.
Republicans in 2025 voted to end the state sales tax exemption for data centers, but Gov. Mike DeWine, also a Republican, vetoed the bill and the Legislature didn't have enough votes to override it.
Besides Boccieri-Fronk, there are three other state House races in the Valley and a state Senate race between Cutrona, R-Canfield, and Democrat Michael L. Kripchak of Youngstown in the 33rd District.
The 33rd includes all of Mahoning, Columbiana and Carroll counties, and favors Republicans by 10%, based on past voting results in statewide partisan elections.
Cutrona had nearly $240,000 in his campaign fund as of June 5 compared to about $5,500 for Kripchak.
State Rep. Tex Fischer, R-Canfield, is running for reelection in the 59th House District against Democrat Wayne J. Penny of Canfield.
Fischer had about $67,000 in his campaign fund compared to no money for Penny as of June 5. There's little doubt that Fischer will raise considerably more than that and will likely benefit from OHROC's in-kind contributions as he did in the 2024 election.
The 59th District favors Republicans by more than 12%, according to partisan statewide voting results, and includes Boardman, Canfield, Berlin, Struthers, Campbell, Beloit, Ellsworth, Sebring, New Middletown, North Lima, Smith, Goshen, Green, Beaver, Springfield and Washingtonville, along with Knox and Butler townships in Columbiana County.
The 65th House race pits state Rep. David Thomas, R-Jefferson, against Democrat John Barbo, Geneva City Council president. Barbo got in the race in mid-June when Lorna J. Westlake of Austinburg withdrew.
While the district includes Girard, Liberty, Hubbard and McDonald -- all places where Democrats have won -- it also includes large portions of rural Trumbull County and much of Ashtabula County, and Democrats haven't won in those locations in a long time.
That's shown by the district favoring Republicans by about 15%, based on past voting results.
Republicans are in firm control in the 79th House District, which includes all of Columbiana County but the two townships that Fischer currently represents and all of Carroll County. Based on partisan statewide voting totals, the district favors Republicans by close to 40%.
State Rep. Monica Robb Blasdel, R-Columbiana, is running for reelection against Democrat Bob Guy of East Liverpool.
David Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.