It’s premature to handicap the Ohio gubernatorial race in July as a lot will happen between now and the Nov. 3 election.

But it looks like the state will have one of its most-contested governor’s races in a number of years.

Ohio governor races aren’t typically close.

Since 1982, there’s only been three races that could fall into that category.

In 1998, Republican Bob Taft beat Democrat Lee Fisher by 5.3%.

In 2010, Republican John Kasich beat Democrat Ted Strickland, who was the incumbent, by 2%.

In 2018, Republican Mike DeWine defeated Democrat Richard Cordray by 3.7%.

The rest of the elections for governor have been blowouts with Republicans winning except Strickland in 2006 and Dick Celeste in 1982 and 1986.

It’s late July, but one thing is obvious: Amy Acton, the Democratic nominee, is not Nan Whaley, Ed FitzGerald, Tim Hagan, Robert Burch, Bud Brown or Ken Blackwell, who were all crushed in general elections over the past four decades.

Polling shows Acton in a statistical tie with Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican gubernatorial nominee.

Polling in July doesn’t always translate to victory in November. It’s a snapshot of what is occurring now.

Evan Machan, a Ramaswamy spokesperson, said: “The media writes the same story every July in Ohio. Then they are surprised in November. The fact remains that the media has no idea how to read a poll.”

I reminded him that I’m very familiar with polls. But, in fairness, I’ve seen several reports, including from national media outlets, with headlines and articles about polling results that don’t understand them.

Despite it being July, Republicans should be concerned – and they are spending heavily in Ohio.

Between Ramaswamy’s campaign and V PAC: Victors Not Victims, a super political action committee backing him, have spent more than $35 million on the campaign.

The campaign for Acton, who served as the state’s health director during the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic, has spent about $7 million.

While I rarely watch network television – I watch a lot of TV, just not the networks – when I do, I’m bombarded with negative ads about Acton.

With all of the money spent by Ramaswamy and the super PAC, three polls done since the beginning of June still show a dead-heat.

Ramaswamy enjoyed a fundraising advantage over Acton in 2025. But as of June 12, the latest filing deadline date, Acton raised about $2 million more from donors than Ramaswamy so far this year.

Ramaswamy, a billionaire biotech entrepreneur, already gave $25 million to his campaign, and there is little doubt he can give considerably more.

Acton’s campaign has acknowledged she cannot compete dollar for dollar with Ramaswamy, but has said she does not need to in order to be competitive.

Addie Bullock, an Acton campaign spokesperson, said: “Dr. Acton’s record-breaking fundraising numbers, her historic grassroots support and poll after poll make it clear: Ohioans are ready for change. Dr. Amy Acton is the only candidate in this race who will lower costs for working families, end the rampant corruption in our Statehouse and build a brighter future for Ohio.”

An AARP poll, done by a Democratic group and a Republican one (which does polling for President Donald Trump), found Acton with a favorable image with 36% of those polled and an unfavorable one with 33%. Ramaswamy is at 36% favorable and 40% unfavorable.

One key issue is that among independent voters, Acton is viewed favorably by 37% compared to 28% unfavorable while Ramaswamy is viewed favorably by only 21% and unfavorably by 47%.

A recent New York Times/Siena poll showed Acton winning independents by 28%.

The well-respected Cook Political Report a couple of weeks ago moved the Ohio governor’s race from lean Republican to toss-up. This is in a state that Republicans have controlled for more than 15 years and have voted for Trump in three consecutive presidential elections.

In the Cook Political Report, editor Jessica Taylor wrote Ramaswamy “has obvious flaws” and “a clear likability problem with Ohio voters, even some in his own party.”

Taylor added: “Unable to bolster his own image so far, Ramaswamy will have to spend millions to try to dent Acton’s image before she can reintroduce herself. While she reported a record-breaking $9.4 million in the last quarter, she hasn’t gone up on air yet. It’s also worth noting that bottomless coffers like Ramaswamy enjoys have not guaranteed wins for other recent self-funders this cycle.”

Ramaswamy has visited county fairs and county Republican events to meet voters, but he’s also faced criticism for flying in private jets and spending too much time out of state and in other countries. Acton has tried to capitalize on that by driving around the state engaging with Ohioans.

There is still a long way to go – and again, much can and will change – but right now there is a legitimate gubernatorial race in Ohio, which the state has rarely seen over the past 40-plus years.

David Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.