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Thanks to gerrymandering and the financial advantages of incumbency, only four out of the 15 U.S. House races in Ohio on the Nov. 3 ballot are considered competitive.
Among the safe Republican districts are the two that include the Mahoning Valley: the 14th Congressional District, a seat held by U.S. Rep. Dave Joyce, R-Bainbridge, who is seeking his eighth two-year term; and the 6th, which has been represented by Congressman Michael Rulli, R-Salem, since he won a special June 2024 election.
The 14th District favors Republicans 58.5% to 41.5% for Democrats based on partisan statewide voting results during the past decade, according to the Ohio Redistricting Commission, which drew the congressional map. The district includes all of Trumbull County and starting Jan. 1, will have a small piece of Mahoning currently in the 6th.
Joyce has consistently done better than the typical Republican in his district.
The 6th District favors Republicans 63.9% to 36.1% for Democrats based on partisan statewide voting results during the past decade. The district includes all of Mahoning and Columbiana counties though it is losing that small part of the former to the 14th.
Rulli had a close race in the June 2024 special election, which isn't a fair indicator because of its unusual circumstances, and then beat the typical Republican percentage by a little in the general election.
With Rulli in one of the safer Republican districts in the state, it was curious to see six Democrats run in that party's primary for an opportunity to face him in the Nov. 3 election.
None of the six have name recognition in the district and all but one had never run for elected office before.
Elizabeth Kirtley of New Philadelphia emerged as the Democratic primary winner.
On the night of the primary, I called Kirtley to tell her she had won, which took her by surprise. She initially told me: "I am in awe and shock."
Kirtley didn't do much campaigning and as of June 30, she raised a total of $1,131.70 and spent $62.76.
Of the six candidates, Kirtley raised the fifth-most money, though it's not like any Democrat raised or spent a lot.
Only two -- Adrian Vitus of Poland, who came in second, and Malcolm Ritchie of Dover, who finished fifth -- raised more than $25,000 for the primary. In Ritchie's case, of the $29,202.84 raised for his campaign, $11,414.75 came from the candidate.
As for Rulli, he raised $237,987.15 and spent $292,933.05 in just the second quarter, between April 16 and June 30. That included $161,450 from political action committees and $67,137.15 from individual donors with the rest from a refund and transfers from other committees.
Overall for this election cycle as of June 30, Rulli raised $1,147,839.59 and spent $971,188.04.
Rulli won the May 5 Republican primary with 78.2% of the vote, beating Jullie Kelley of Monroe, who didn't raise enough money to file a campaign finance report.
As Rulli has served in the U.S. House for about two years, he hasn't had the time to build up a huge campaign surplus as those who have been there longer. But he still had $284,711.01 in his fund as of June 30.
On the other hand, Joyce has not only been in Congress since January 2011, but he's been one of the strongest fundraisers of any incumbent U.S. House member in Ohio.
As of June 30, Joyce had a $3,121,594.77 surplus in his campaign fund.
In the second quarter, Joyce raised $312,633.43 and spent $107,302.53.
Overall for this election cycle through June 30, Joyce raised $1,436,230.81 and spent $1,228,236.86.
Joyce won the May 5 Republican primary with 70.7% of the vote, defeating Niki Frenchko of Warren.
Joyce's Democratic opponent, Maria Jukic, who beat two others in her party's primary, raised $40,621.74 and spent $6,928.91, leaving her with a $33,692.83 surplus as of June 30.
Jukic, a former Euclid councilwoman, got 50.6% of the vote in the Democratic primary.
While she raised the most money of the Democrats in the primary -- and didn't start collecting cash until April 18, only 17 days before the primary -- she spent very little.
She did better than Bill O'Neill of Chagrin Falls, a former Ohio Supreme Court justice and 11th District Court of Appeals judge, who didn't take any contributions or file any campaign finance reports.
Carl Setzer of Moreland Hills spent the most money of any Democratic candidate in the race -- $14,848.58 -- and finished in last place.
David Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.