Democrat Sherrod Brown plans to run next year for the U.S. Senate, where he served for 18 years before losing in 2024.

He faces an uphill challenge.

Brown certainly provides Democrats with the best chance to win the seat because of his decades of elected experience and strong name recognition.

But it also shows how much the Democratic Party is struggling in Ohio. If Brown didn’t run for the Senate, there wasn’t a real backup plan.

The only other possible Democrat name of note mentioned to take on Republican Jon Husted, appointed in January by Gov. Mike DeWine to fill a vacant seat, was U.S. Rep. Emilia Sykes.

Sykes won two close races in her Akron-based congressional district and is the former Ohio House minority leader. Republicans will change her district’s boundaries to make it easier for their candidate to win. Also, Sykes isn’t well known outside the Akron area.

Except for Brown, an Ohio Democrat hasn’t won a statewide race with party affiliation included on the ballot since 2008.

The state hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since Ted Strickland in 2006. As one Democratic strategist astutely said to me: “We’ve been in the desert about half the time that Moses was in it.”

Brown was heavily recruited by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer to challenge Husted in the 2026 election.

The winner of the 2026 Senate race will serve the remaining two years on the term of Republican J.D. Vance, who left the seat in January to become vice president. That means whoever wins the Senate seat next year would have to run again in 2028.

Should Brown somehow win next year, he would have to turn around and campaign for the 2028 election — and he just lost the 2024 election. A senator’s term is six years. Brown could potentially run three times in that timespan, assuming he wins next year.

While Brown hasn’t made an official announcement, numerous media outlets – with Cleveland.com being the first – reported earlier this week that he will run for senator.

Brown had also considered a bid for governor. The delay in Brown’s decision, which still isn’t official, left Democrats in limbo waiting to hear of his plans.

As it has been for several years, 2026 is going to be difficult for Democrats to win in Ohio, a solid Republican state.

Brown lost last year to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.6%.

It was Moreno’s first time on the ballot. Moreno received support from Donald Trump, with whom he shared the ticket. Trump won Ohio by 11.2% so there is an argument to be made that the president’s strong support in Ohio helped Moreno as Brown did much better in the state than Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate.

Brown saw his support erode after beating Republican Mike DeWine, then the incumbent senator, in 2006 — a very successful election year for Democrats. He won in 2006 by 12.3%, by 6% in 2012 and by 6.8% in 2018 with the latter election against a weaker Republican opponent.

The decline of the Democratic Party in Ohio is evident in Mahoning and Trumbull counties.

The two counties were reliable Democratic strongholds for 80-plus years until Trump ran for president in 2016.

Trump won Trumbull in 2016, 2020 and 2024. He won Mahoning in 2020 and 2024 and nearly won it in 2016.

Also, Republicans on the Trumbull County ballot in 2022 and 2024 won every contested race.

Republicans made historic gains in Mahoning County in the 2024 election.

Brown was able to count on Mahoning and Trumbull counties in his 2006, 2012 and 2018 senatorial campaigns. But he lost both of them in 2024 albeit by a small amount in Mahoning.

Brown went from getting 73.5% of the Mahoning County vote in 2006 to 48.3% last year.

It was even worse in Trumbull. Brown received 73.1% of the county’s vote in 2006 to 45.2% last year.

Brown won’t have Trump on the ballot in 2026, but Husted has been loyal to the president since his January appointment by DeWine and has Trump’s endorsement. Husted is a former lieutenant governor, secretary of state and Ohio House speaker.

The Senate race will largely come down to whether Ohioans are happy with Trump and his policies in late 2026.

David Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.