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Issue backers count on poor turnout for primary election

When the bar is set so low, getting a little above it or a little below it isn’t much of an accomplishment.

Right before the election, Stephanie Penrose, Trumbull County Board of Elections director, expected turnout in the county at 10%.

She said: “We’ll be lucky to break 10%. Nothing is really driving turnout. Turnout will be really low.”

Penrose, who is always optimistic about turnout projections, added: “I hope a bunch of people will show up on Election Day and prove me wrong.”

Trumbull’s turnout was 11.17%.

Tom McCabe, director of the Mahoning County Board of Elections, said a few days before the election that he was “hopeful we can get to 10%. But we might be looking at 6 to 7%.”

Turnout in Mahoning County was 9.38%.

As expected, turnout was poor all over the state.

It was 10.6% for state Issue 2.

Of the state’s 8,205,338 voters, 868,124 ballots were cast for the issue.

There are still provisional ballots and late-arriving absentee votes to count, but those will move the percentage up by a tiny amount.

Those who put issues on the primary ballot in an odd year bank on poor turnout. They work to get supporters to the polls and often make no effort to let others know about those issues.

Most people aren’t used to primaries in odd years because they don’t typically happen. If you live in a township or many villages, you don’t vote in odd-year primaries.

If you live in a city and aren’t affiliated with a political party, you also don’t vote in those primaries.

The state of Ohio was the biggest culprit this year.

A statewide election costs about $15 million to $20 million.

State Issue 2 permits Ohio to renew up to $2.5 billion in general obligation bonds — $250 million per year for 10 years — to assist local governments in funding infrastructure improvement projects.

The 10-year State Capital Improvement Program was first approved in 1987 by voters and renewed two other times before it won Tuesday with 67.76% support.

Since it began, the program has provided funding for more than 19,000 infrastructure projects in the state, including upgrades to roads and bridges, wastewater treatment systems, water supply systems, solid waste disposal facilities, stormwater and sanitary collection, and storage and treatment facilities.

Strong Ohio Communities Coalition, which ran the Issue 2 campaign, raised $697,500 and spent $349,284 as of April 16. Those figures are low for a statewide issue.

Of the money raised, $150,000 came from the Ohio Construction Information Association. The other major contributors are construction unions and major construction companies — which will financially benefit from the program.

Of the money spent, $250,000 went to digital advertising — live television streaming services and online. Yes, people’s viewing habits have changed in the last decade, but most campaigns put money into local television as well as radio.

It’s as if state officials didn’t want its voters to know the issue was on the ballot.

The program is popular throughout the state, so it would have passed if the state waited until the Nov. 4 general election to put it in front of voters. Turnout isn’t going to be great in the fall, but it will be better than Tuesday and at least people are used to voting in November elections.

But Ohio wasn’t the only one to take advantage of Tuesday’s primary.

In Mahoning County, there were tax issues on the ballot for those living in Austintown, Craig Beach, Lowellville and the Poland school district. Those residents never vote in odd-year primaries. The last time they voted in a primary was in 2019 when county commissioners used the same tactic and put a 0.75% sales tax renewal on the May ballot.

All the tax issues in Mahoning County passed Tuesday except for Lowellville’s attempt to increase its village income tax. That failed 105-45. There are 759 registered voters in Lowellville, so turnout in the village was 19.8%. That is among the highest in Mahoning County for Tuesday. But it also means that 80.2% of Lowellville’s registered voters didn’t vote.

In Trumbull County, there were nine tax issues on the ballot in places that never have odd-year primaries such as Champion, Farmington, Kinsman and Vienna and the Lordstown, McDonald and Maplewood school districts.

There also was a levy in Hubbard. The city occasionally has odd-year primaries while the township never does. There would have been no primary in the city of Hubbard if not for the school levy and state Issue 2.

Every tax issue in Trumbull County passed with Vienna’s additional levy for fire and emergency medical services being the closest: 418-405.

If the state continues to put issues on ballots in elections for which turnout typically is poor, how can we expect local governments to not do so as well?

Recall the special August 2023 election on a referendum to make it much harder to put other constitutional amendments on the ballot. That happened shortly after the state Legislature voted to eliminate August special elections, except for emergencies, because no one pays attention to them. Republicans in the Legislature then passed an exemption for that particular constitutional amendment.

Turnout was 39.03%, a high percentage for an August special election. The proposal lost 57.11% to 42.89%.

More people than usual were paying attention in that election.

David Skolnick covers politics for The Vindicator and the Tribune Chronicle.

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