Republican Michael Rulli is the heavy favorite to win the June 11 special election for the open 6th Congressional District seat, but Democrat Michael L. Kripchak isn’t throwing in the towel.

“I’m going to be a blue congressman in a supposedly red district,” Kripchak said.

When you look at the numbers, there’s nothing supposed about the district being solidly Republican.

The district has an 18% advantage for Republicans based on voting trends in partisan statewide elections over the past decade.

National Democrats aren’t getting involved in this special election even though Republicans hold a slim four-vote majority in the U.S. House. The same can be said for national Republicans because they already consider the race to be won.

Rulli said of Kripchak, “He has no experience legislating whatsoever.”

Kripchak, an Air Force Academy graduate who spent three years as an acquisitions officer and research assistant with the Air Force, said he is “the one with actual federal experience.”

Rulli, a two-term state senator from Salem, emerged from a bruising Republican primary to be the party’s nominee.

Rulli lost nine of the 11 counties in the 6th District. But he won the race by about 8.5% over state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus of Paris Township because of his overwhelming support in Columbiana and particularly Mahoning counties.

Mahoning has by far the most voters of the counties in the district and Rulli has represented it and Columbiana for more than five years. Rulli won Mahoning by more than 64%.

Besides Mahoning and Stark, Columbiana is the district’s most-populous county.

Kripchak of Youngstown won all 11 counties in the Democratic primary, but far fewer voters cast ballots in that election than in the Republican primary.

Rulli has raised and spent a lot more money than Kripchak and has a solid base in Mahoning and Columbiana counties as shown by his two strong state Senate victories and his showing in the two counties during the March 19 Republican primary.

While Rulli didn’t do well in the rest of the district, those counties are very Republican so he should have little trouble winning them.

One major concern with this election is turnout.

It’s going to be atrocious. Turnout might not even reach 10%.

It’s the only race on the ballot, and the election is taking place on June 11, an unusual date for people to vote in Ohio.

Early voting has been very poor.

People just aren’t engaged in this election.

That leaves an opening for Kripchak though it is likely even fewer Democrats will come out to vote in this election than Republicans.

The election, which is costing about $1 million to hold, is occurring only because of the vacancy created by Republican Bill Johnson’s Jan. 21 resignation from the U.S. House. Johnson left behind the congressional seat he held for 13 years to become Youngstown State University president.

The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of Johnson’s unexpired term.

Rulli and Kripchak will square off again in the Nov. 5 general election for a full two-year term in Congress that starts in January 2025.

With presidential candidates on that ballot, turnout will be significantly better than what we will see June 11.

Had Johnson not accepted that YSU job — which pays considerably more than being a congressman and offers many more perks — Rulli and Stoltzfus would not have run against him. Johnson was a well-established congressman with a track record of raising a lot of money for his campaigns.

Johnson’s congressional fund had a solid surplus of $872,287 as of March 31, the most recent filing date, even though it hasn’t raised money in months.

Rulli had his sights set on running in 2026 for Ohio secretary of state when the YSU trustees made the surprise Nov. 16 announcement that they were offering the presidency to Johnson.

Kripchak was going to run regardless of what Republicans filed for the congressional seat.

He sought the Democratic nomination for the spot two years ago. But because of problems with his nominating petitions, he didn’t qualify for the ballot in 2022.

Have an interesting story? Contact David Skolnick by email at dskolnick@vindy.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @dskolnick.