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The ups and downs of LaRose’s Senate bid

Secretary of State Frank LaRose enters the Ohio Senate race with some advantages over his two Republican opponents but also with challenges.

LaRose certainly is better known than the other two Republican candidates: state Sen. Matt Dolan of Chagrin Falls and Cleveland-area businessman Bernie Moreno.

LaRose has won two statewide elections for his current office while Dolan finished third in last year’s Republican primary for a different U.S. Senate seat with Moreno withdrawing from that Senate race two days after the filing deadline.

But as U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Cincinnati, proved last year, you don’t have to be an experienced politician to get elected.

Vance had a national name as a best-selling author, but more importantly, he had the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Trump remains popular and is the front-runner for the Republican nomination for president in 2024.

A Trump endorsement could again be the difference maker in next year’s Senate race.

If Trump endorses, signs point to Moreno. Trump already publicly complimented Moreno on a few occasions, and Moreno is actively courting his support.

Vance endorses Moreno, which could help convince Trump.

Meanwhile, Trump has been openly hostile to Dolan, who has criticized Trump.

In his Senate announcement, LaRose said he was the only secretary of state in the country last year who received Trump’s endorsement.

He didn’t mention statements he made a few months ago at a Republican event that Trump’s endorsement matters, but “there’s probably another 60 percent of the party that doesn’t care who he endorses.”

The winner of the Republican primary will face U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Cleveland, seeking his fourth six-year term. Brown is a tenacious campaigner and fundraiser who’s collected more than

$5 million in the second quarter and about $8.6 million so far this year.

Money is another obstacle for LaRose.

Dolan has shown he’s willing to spend whatever it takes to win.

He provided $10.6 million of his own money to his 2022 campaign.

Dolan has given $4 million as of June 30 to this campaign. He’s raised only $600,000 this year from donors.

When Moreno was a candidate in 2022, he gave $3.81 million of his money and then dropped out per the request of Trump, who was concerned Dolan had a path to the nomination.

Moreno has said he won’t use his wealth this time.

Moreno raised $2.26 million in the second quarter with about $600,000 specifically for the general election, meaning he can’t touch it in the primary.

LaRose doesn’t have the personal wealth of Moreno and Dolan.

However, other Republican Senate candidates raised a lot more money than Vance — largely from themselves — and lost.

LaRose will have to rely on donors and outside special-interest groups to prop up his campaign.

Before his Monday announcement, LaRose was raising money for the Leadership for Ohio Fund, a political organization that can receive an unlimited amount of dark money and report only to the IRS. The fund could transfer its money to a super political action committee to help LaRose.

LaRose’s other issue is seat jumping. He was elected to a second four-year term as secretary of state in November, and now he’s planning to run for another job.

Moreno’s campaign is criticizing LaRose for the decision.

Finally, LaRose is one of the primary backers of state Issue 1, which would make it much harder for constitutional amendments to pass if voters approve it Aug. 8.

LaRose is so connected to the issue that his Senate cause could be impacted if it is defeated.

Mahoning County Republican Party Chairman Tom McCabe, who also is director of the Mahoning County Board of Elections, said he backs LaRose.

“It’s going to be a tough race with him, Dolan and Moreno,” McCabe said. “Getting Trump’s endorsement is pretty important. Frank has a great track record and will make a great senator.”

The county party won’t endorse and will back whoever wins the March primary, McCabe said.

It’s too early to put stock in polls, but a recent one by USA Today Network Ohio / Suffolk University shows statistical ties in head-to-head races between Brown and any of the three Republicans.

There were only 190 Republicans polled for that party’s Senate primary with a majority undecided on whom to support.

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