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Cleveland-area businessman Bernie Moreno will be the next Republican to declare his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Democrat Sherrod Brown, but he won’t be the last.
Moreno filed a statement of candidacy this week with the Federal Election Commission and will almost certainly make a public announcement Tuesday at a craft brewery in the Cincinnati area that he will run for the job in 2024.
Moreno has repeatedly praised former President Donald Trump, who will play a key role in the Republican primary and the general election in Ohio, and taken some shots at potential GOP rivals.
Trump is very pleased with Moreno.
He wrote Wednesday: “Word is that Bernie Moreno, the highly respected businessman from the GREAT STATE of OHIO, and the father-in-law of fantastic young congressman, Max Miller, is thinking of running for the Senate. He would not be easy to beat, especially against Brown, one of the worst in the Senate!”
Moreno spent several months campaigning for the open U.S. Senate seat on the 2022 ballot. During that time, he gave $3.81 million of his personal wealth to his campaign and raised $2.86 million from donors.
Moreno withdrew only two days after the filing deadline and as a direct result of a conversation he had with Trump about helping to clear the crowded Republican field for the seat. Moreno’s decision didn’t lead to any other Republican candidate to leave.
Trump’s biggest concern was he didn’t want state Sen. Matt Dolan of Chagrin Falls, who didn’t seek the ex-president’s endorsement, to win the primary.
Dolan finished a respectable third in last year’s Republican primary for the Senate seat with J.D. Vance, who Trump ended up endorsing, as the winner.
Dolan became the first Republican to announce he would challenge for Brown’s seat, doing so three months ago.
Dolan was the last Republican to enter the 2022 Senate primary and that late start didn’t help him.
Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, put $10.6 million of his personal wealth into that campaign.
The 2022 Senate election was a record in Ohio for dollars spent as well as the amount of money wealthy Republican candidates personally gave to their campaigns. The 2024 campaign is expected to be even more expensive.
As I stated, more Republicans will step forward to seek this seat.
Secretary of State Frank LaRose hasn’t been shy about his interest in the position and is certainly going to declare his candidacy at some point ä likely sooner rather than later.
Like Moreno, LaRose is seen as a Trump ally, though his connection to the former president isn’t as strong. But LaRose also has run and won two statewide elections.
Moreno has criticized LaRose for planning to run for the Senate shortly after getting re-elected secretary of state.
Another possible Republican candidate is U.S. Rep. Warren Davidson of Troy, though there is no guarantee he will risk his safe seat in the House of Representatives for an uncertain Senate bid.
While Brown has been elected to the Senate three times, the 2024 race will be his most challenging.
He first was elected in 2006, the best year Democrats have had in Ohio in the last three decades. Brown was re-elected in 2012 with Ohio also supporting Democratic incumbent President Barack Obama on the state ticket, though the senator outperformed him.
But Ohio has greatly swung in favor of Republicans since then, particularly with the 2014 landslide re-election of then-Gov. John Kasich, followed by Trump’s 2016 presidential victory.
Brown beat Republican Mike DeWine, then a two-term incumbent senator, by 12.34 percent in 2006. He defeated then-Treasurer Josh Mandel in 2012 by 6 percent.
In the 2018 election, which saw then-U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci emerge as the Republican candidate after Mandel withdrew, Brown won by 6.84 percent. That race was much closer than many expected.
With Ohio becoming even more Republican, Brown is considered among the most vulnerable incumbent Democrats in the U.S. Senate in next year’s election along with Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana.
But it wouldn’t be wise to dismiss Brown’s chances as he is one of the best known politicians in Ohio and he runs smart, effective, well-financed campaigns.