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75% likely won’t vote this spring

Turnout during primaries, except when there’s a competitive presidential one, rarely attract much interest.

As local election officials frequently say: It is those nonpresidential races that really affect people’s lives.

Turnout predictions for the May 3 primary are expected to be poor, when about 75 percent of registered voters probably won’t bother to cast ballots.

But even with confusion and lack of interest caused by plans for two primaries this year, the projected turnout here still isn’t that different from the past two statewide primaries.

In 2018, turnout was 24.81 percent in Mahoning and 24.98 percent in Trumbull.

It was even lower in 2014: 21.86 percent in Mahoning and 20.45 percent in Trumbull.

There are contested statewide primaries on the May 3 ballot for governor and the U.S. Senate for both political parties and a Republican secretary of state race.

In Mahoning County, the only contested races on the ballot are for the 6th Congressional District seat — both Democrat and Republican — and party precinct committee positions.

There are also nine tax levies, including four in school districts.

There’s not a lot to compel people to vote.

Also, some voters don’t want to be affiliated with a political party and thus don’t participate in primaries.

In Trumbull County, there are a number of contested primaries, including county commissioner.

On the Democratic side, there also are races for common pleas court judge and recorder, while Republicans can choose nominees for the 14th Congressional District and a position on the 11th District Court of Appeals. Both parties also have party precinct committee races.

There are seven tax issues, including three in school districts, on the ballot.

With low turnout expected, it will be interesting to see if even half of the voters casting ballots May 3 return for this year’s second primary — whenever that will be.

The Ohio Supreme Court has rejected three state legislative maps from the Ohio Redistricting Commission saying they’re unconstitutional over gerrymandering issues that unfairly favor Republicans.

The court’s decision on a fourth map, which is virtually the same as the rejected third map, now is pending.

Once a map is approved, a separate primary for state legislative and party state central committee seats will be held. There’s also the possibility of federal judges deciding to hold a second primary without the state court approving a map.

Secretary of State Frank LaRose has said the second primary would most likely be Aug. 2, the date for a special election. The state Legislature gets to decide when that primary will be held.

Thomas McCabe, Mahoning County Board of Elections director, said: “Turnout will plummet in the second primary.”

Discussions I had with those who came to the Mahoning County Board of Elections on Tuesday, the first day of early voting, leads me to the same conclusion.

If you show up on the first day of early voting, you’re likely a consistent voter.

Yet some of them told me they weren’t going to vote in the second primary.

A few were angry that state officials aren’t having one primary, particularly because it’s going to cost $20 million to $25 million for a second. Even if all the races in the second primary are uncontested, polling locations will have to be open.

When looking to blame those responsible for the two primaries, Democrats say it’s Republicans on the redistricting commission who have repeatedly ignored the Ohio Supreme Court’s orders.

Republicans largely criticize the Ohio Supreme Court and, in particular, Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor, a fellow Republican who has sided with the three Democratic justices in each decision rejecting the maps.

At the Mahoning County Republican Party Lincoln Day dinner last week, state Rep. Al Cutrona, R-Canfield, and state Sen. Michael Rulli, R-Salem, both took aim at O’Connor without naming her for holding up the process.

Cutrona referred to her as a “rogue justice of the radical left agenda.” Rulli said: “Shame on her.”

During those speeches, Columbiana County Republican Party Chairman Dave Johnson yelled, “Lock her up,” regarding O’Connor. Some Republicans are considering impeaching O’Connor, whose term expires

at the end of this year, over the issue.

Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.

dskolnick@tribtoday.com

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