The U.S. House district lines remain uncertain as the Republican-drawn map approved by the Ohio Redistricting Commission awaits a decision on its constitutionality by the Ohio Supreme Court.

But no matter what the court decides, the deadline for Democratic and Republican candidates to file for those House seats was a week ago.

While independents are likely for some or even several of those districts, let’s look at where we are today in the Mahoning Valley.

History shows it’s difficult to beat sitting House members. It becomes even more challenging when incumbents have been there for years, have favorable districts and have more than $1 million in their campaign fund.

That is where U.S. Reps. Bill Johnson, R-Marietta, and Dave Joyce, R-Bainbridge, find themselves as they seek re-election to the 6th and 14th Congressional District seats, respectively.

The commission drew districts for Johnson and Joyce that not only favor Republicans, but also contain much of their current counties.

Johnson’s district includes all of Mahoning and is its most-populous county, while Joyce’s district takes in all of Trumbull and is its second most-populous county.

Even if the Supreme Court overturns this congressional map as unconstitutional, as it did previously, the district lines for Johnson and Joyce won’t change much.

If the map is upheld, the primary is May 3. That doesn’t give challengers much time to raise money or name recognition.

If the court strikes down this map, the primary will be delayed, likely be for a month or two, giving little help to the challengers.

The 6th District attracted a lot of challengers to Johnson.

There are three other Republicans and four Democrats. A fifth Democrat who filed, Michael L. Kripchak, was not certified to the ballot for lack of enough valid signatures.

Johnson had $1,260,200 in his campaign fund Dec. 31, according to his most recent Federal Election Commission filing. That’s up from $858,830 a year earlier.

In comparison, most other candidates in the district haven’t even filed statements of organization with the FEC to start raising money.

Those who did file reported raising no money in 2021.

Three of the four Democrats seeking the nomination have run for Congress before.

None met with success.

Shawna Roberts of Belmont lost to Johnson by 38.6 percent in 2018 and by 48.8 percent in 2020.

Louis G. Lyras of Campbell ran in 2020 as a Republican in the current 13th District. He finished second, but got only 11.9 percent of the vote among seven candidates. He lost to Christina Hagan of Marlboro, who received 65.8 percent of the vote.

Martin Alexander of Boardman ran in the 2021 special election for the 11th District seat in Cuyahoga and Summit counties. He finished 10th out of 12 candidates in the Democratic primary with 0.1 percent of the vote.

John Anderson of Enon, one of Johnson’s Republican opponents, ran in the 2020 GOP primary for the 10th District, receiving 7.9 percent of the vote.

Joyce had two Republicans and a Democrat file to challenge him.

Like Johnson, Joyce had quite a lot of money in his campaign fund: $1,379,197, as of Dec. 31. That’s more than double the $666,492 he had at the end of 2020.

Unlike Johnson, Joyce’s opponents raised money last year. But the amounts are small in comparison to the incumbent.

Patrick Gene Awtrey of Parma Heights, one of his Republican challengers, collected $5,350 including $100 from himself and had $5,152 in his fund as of Dec. 31.

Matt Kilboy of Deerfield, the lone Democratic challenger, raised $7,628 and had $7,065 as of Dec. 31.

Democrat Brenden Kelley of Russell was campaigning for the seat most of last year, but didn’t file by last week’s deadline.

Kelley gave $220,750 of his own money to his campaign and raised $145,349 from donors as of Dec. 31. He had $226,670 in his fund at the end of last year.

Kelley recently posted a statement on his campaign website that “it is with a heavy heart that I share my decision to end my campaign for Congress.”

Kelley added: “Needless to say, the latest congressional map set forth by the Ohio Redistricting Commission played a large role in my decision. It would be imprudent to ask our team and our supporters to fight against a gerrymandered map. Still, no decision is made in a vacuum. After taking stock of my family’s needs and our well-being, I know that this course of action is what’s best for us.”

Skolnick covers politics for The Vindicator and the Tribune Chronicle.

dskolnick@vindy.com