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The Ohio Redistricting Commission, which will redraw the 99 Ohio House and 33 state Senate districts, will meet today for the first time.
The commission also gets a crack at redrawing the congressional districts if the state Legislature is unable to come up with a map that satisfies enough Democrats.
There's no doubt that whatever state legislative and congressional maps are drawn will be better than what Ohio has right now thanks to voter-approved charter amendments that make the process more fair.
But more fair doesn't mean completely fair or that new maps will satisfy Democrats who are in the super minority in the state House and Senate and have held only four of the 16 congressional seats in the state since the last districts were drawn a decade ago.
The current maps were designed by Republicans a decade ago to greatly benefit members of that party. It's worked tremendously well for them.
Republicans still control the process, but need Democratic support this time to get 10-year maps. Without that support, the maps would be in place for four years and the process started over again.
The seven-member Ohio Redistricting Commission includes five Republicans and two Democrats. Each party gets a representative from the state House and Senate while the three others are Gov. Mike DeWine, Auditor Keith Faber and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, all Republicans.
At least one of the two Democrats on the commission has to vote yes on a 10-year map.
A four-person majority, without Democratic support, is all that's needed for a four-year map.
The commission has to follow certain rules including not splitting counties more than once, when it's possible; the districts should be compact; and the overall percentage of seats for each political party should match the percentage of votes over the last 10 years.
Republicans can draw maps to their advantage that follow the rules and be happy to have them for four years and then do that again and again.
The Mahoning Valley shouldn't see much change. Some communities will be moved to another district, and the district numbers likely will be different, but Mahoning County will still have two House seats and the same for Trumbull County.
The only changes in Trumbull County are expected to be the removal of the six southern communities in Ashtabula County, which are heavily Republican, in what is now the 64th Ohio House District with a portion of the 63rd District moved in to make up that population loss.
With Mike Loychik, R-Bazetta, seeking re-election in what is now the 63rd and Republican Nick Santucci of Howland in the 64th -- and the state GOP is backing Santucci to gain control over what has been a Democrat district though last year's race was very close -- it will be a delicate balancing act to determine what communities will be moved.
The current 32nd Senate District will continue to include all of Trumbull and Ashtabula counties with the small part of Geauga County in it likely removed.
In Mahoning County, it's a lot easier. The 58th District, represented by term-limited Michele Lepore-Hagan, D-Youngstown, is a solid Democratic district and the 59th District, which used to be a reliable Democratic district but has since become solid red, will remain Republican.
The only issue is the 58th likely lost some of its population. The easiest solution is to take the handful of Austintown precincts in the 59th and move them.
No change is expected to the existing 33rd Senate District, which includes all of Mahoning and Columbiana counties.
The deadline for approval of the maps is coming fast.
Sept. 1 is the commission's date for an initial 10-year map. Sept. 15 is the final deadline to approve a 10-year map.
The General Assembly has until Sept. 30 to approve a congressional map. If that fails, it would go to the commission and need approval from both Democrats by Oct. 31.
If that doesn't happen, the Legislature gets a final shot at a 10-year map to be approved no later than Nov. 30 with 60 percent overall support including at least one-third of Democrats in favor. If not, Republicans can approve a four-year map with a majority vote.
Advocacy organizations, largely made up of Democrats, have been calling for DeWine to convene the commission since February.
Republicans are blaming the U.S. Census Bureau for the delay.
The bureau was supposed to deliver the local population numbers by March 31, but said "COVID-19-related delays and prioritizing the delivery of the apportionment results delayed" the original plan. The release date is now scheduled Thursday.
Skolnick covers politics for The Vindicator and the Tribune Chronicle.
dskolnick@vindy.com