Breaking up is hard to do, but the longtime marriage between most of Mahoning and Trumbull counties in one congressional district is nearing its end.

When a new congressional map for the state is approved later this year, don’t expect neighboring counties to be in the same congressional district. The new map takes effect Jan. 1, 2023.

For decades, nearly all of the two counties were in the same district, along with Columbiana County.

When redistricting occurred in 2002, things changed.

Primarily because of criminal charges against James A. Traficant Jr., former congressman for a district including virtually all of Mahoning, Trumbull and Columbiana counties, no one in power on the state level had any issue cutting up his district after Ohio lost one representative as a result of population shifts. Traficant got expelled from Congress and unsuccessfully ran as an independent from federal prison later that year.

Columbiana and a southern portion of Mahoning were put in a district that stretched for about 300 miles along the state’s eastern and southern borders while a few northern townships in Trumbull were put in a district with northeast counties.

Most of Trumbull and Mahoning were kept together but placed in a district with parts of Portage and Summit counties to allow then-U.S. Rep. Tom Sawyer, an Akron Democrat, to continue serving. But it didn’t work out that way. Tim Ryan, who was a freshman state senator from Trumbull County at the time, won the Democratic primary against Sawyer and then the general election.

Redistricting in 2012 cut other small pieces of the Valley from the district Ryan continues to represent as the state lost two seats through reapportionment. It was drawn as a safe Democratic district with Summit as its most-populous county.

Because of political changes in the district, Ryan saw his margins of victory decrease during every election since 2012 and even if it stayed close to what it is currently, it’s no longer a guaranteed win for Democrats.

But for the new redistricting, there’s practically no getting around a split of the two counties with the state again losing a seat and changes in the law that limit how many counties can be divided and by how much.

All of Trumbull likely will end up in a district that now is represented by Dave Joyce, R-Bainbridge. If so, Trumbull would go from being the smallest part of Joyce’s district to the second most-populous county.

Mahoning has a couple of options, but the most likely one is moving the district south to the district now represented by Bill Johnson, R-Marietta. That district would stretch from Mahoning to Washington counties.

If all of Mahoning ends up in that district, it would be the most-populous county in it. It would also be the only Democratic part of what is currently one

of the reddest districts in the country.

The other option, if Republicans are feeling generous, is to split Mahoning and create a district with Youngstown and communities that surround it that goes through Portage County and into Summit, taking in all of Akron. If that happens, it’s a very winnable district for a Democrat.

There’s another option being discussed by some Republicans to reunite Mahoning, Trumbull and Columbiana and add a surrounding county or two to create a district with state Sen. Michael Rulli, R-Salem, as a likely candidate for the seat.

But numerous people I spoke to, including several Republicans who would know, say that isn’t going to happen because there’s no guarantee Rulli could hold off a Democrat to win it, and it would mess up the map for incumbent Republican members of Congress, who get preferential treatment over a freshman state senator.

Ryan said months ago he would run for re-election in 2022 if he was given a winnable district. At the time, it seemed highly unlikely that would happen as his own district was trending Republican, and surrounding areas are even more red.

But then U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, R-Terrace Park, announced he would retire and not seek re-election next year. Ryan saw an opportunity to seek the Senate seat with the realization that he would have an incredibly difficult time retaining a House position.

The vacancy caused by Ryan’s exit makes it even easier to divide Mahoning and Trumbull counties, which were longtime Democratic strongholds, into two or even three districts.

Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.

dskolnick@vindy.com