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David Skolnick

Adapt with changing voter trends

4 min read

During this past election in Ohio, a record number of votes were cast early largely because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The final percentage for this election was 58.6.

In typical years, early voting makes up a much smaller percentage of total ballots cast. For example, in 2016, it was 33.5 percent.

The numbers were a little lower this year in Mahoning and Trumbull counties than the state.

Of the 119,968 votes in Mahoning County, about 57 percent did so early. In Trumbull, 101,813 people voted with about 53 percent casting them early.

Turnout statewide also was very high with 74 percent of registered voters casting ballots.

In Mahoning County, turnout was 72.59 percent. Though slightly lower than the state, it was the highest in more than two decades in the county.

In prior presidential-election years, turnout in Mahoning was 70.82 percent in 2016, 72.2 percent in 2012, 72.31 percent in 2008, 68.9 percent in 2004, 65.1 percent in 2000 and 71.25 percent in 1996.

Turnout in Trumbull County was the highest in 16 years at 74.35 percent and a fraction above the state number.

In previous presidential-election years, turnout in Trumbull was 69.7 percent in 2016, 67.81 percent in 2012, 72.65 in 2008, 77.75 percent in 2004, 67.88 percent in 2000 and 74.95 percent.

Before this year, people voted early, but not nearly at the levels of this election.

There was light turnout in the primary, but about 99 percent of all ballots were done by mail because of the pandemic or in-person early before the state shut down in mid-March. The virus led to the state Legislature's decision to prohibit in-person voting in the delayed primary for all but a few exceptions.

That forced those who've never voted by mail to do so if they wanted to participate in the primary.

But it also showed them how easy it is.

Those who wanted to skip going to their polling locations realized the alternatives -- either early in-person or by mail -- aren't difficult.

If the state would allow online absentee requests and pay for postage for those voting by mail, it would be even more simple and participation would be greater.

Now that people have experienced voting early, many of them won't go back to waiting until Election Day to vote.

However, many campaigns didn't adapt to the changes.

Rather than advertise as soon as early voting started on Oct. 6, numerous candidates waited until the final week or even the final few days before the Nov. 3 election to do so.

They failed to adapt to the reality that voting started four weeks before Election Day.

The overdose of campaign mail, text messages, phone calls and other advertising were spent on a decent percentage of Ohioans who had already voted.

It was a foolish decision by numerous candidates and committees to wait until right before Nov. 3 to do this.

Of course there were candidates with limited budgets, but when post-general-election campaign financial reports come out, we're going to see that some who lost their elections left a ton of money sitting in their funds because they didn't spend enough to get the attention of early voters.

This upcoming election is going to be a light one with a few municipalities in the Mahoning Valley having primaries and then township trustee and school board candidates along with a few mayoral and council races in the general election.

We're not going to experience anywhere near the turnout in 2021 as we did this year, and local candidates don't have the financial resources of congressional or General Assembly or even countywide candidates.

But we'll have a major election in 2022 with statewide candidates at the top of a crowded ballot.

It would be wise for those running to learn what some candidates failed to realize this year: people are voting early at a greater number than ever before, and you must reach them with your message as soon as possible.

Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.

dskolnick@tribtoday.com

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