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The importance of Mahoning and Trumbull counties in helping Democrats win statewide cannot be overstated.
Right before the election, I wrote that the two counties were pivotal to the outcome. If Democrats won the counties, they would win the state and the same for Republicans.
All statewide candidates who won the Nov. 3 election received a majority of the vote in Mahoning County. It was the same in Trumbull with one exception - Democrat John Kulewicz. Kulewicz lost Trumbull by 1.1% to Republican Keith Faber. Statewide, Kulewicz won by 0.68%.
The two counties were Democratic strongholds for decades, going back to the New Deal. But that changed in the age of Donald Trump and the president's coattails were enough to make every Trumbull County Republican candidate in a contested race in 2024 a winner with Republicans capturing a majority of contested races in Mahoning County.
The signs were there before 2024. Every Republican on the 2022 ballot won in Trumbull and many won Mahoning that year.
While the days of Democratic landslides in the two counties are over as Mahoning and Trumbull showed themselves to be swing counties, the switch was remarkable.
None of the Democrats won by significant amounts, but it was a huge change from just two years ago.
Democrat Amy Acton won Ohio by 7.93% over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. She had the biggest win of any statewide candidate in the Nov. 3 election.
Acton won Mahoning by 9.37%. In 2022, Republican Mike DeWine beat Democrat Nan Whaley in the governor's race in Mahoning by 30.72%. That's a 40.09% shift in one gubernatorial election.
In between the gubernatorial elections, Trump beat Democrat Kamala Harris for president in Mahoning County by 9.37% - the exact same percentage Acton received over Ramaswamy. That's an 18.74% change in two years at the top of the ticket.
Acton won Trumbull County by 7.05%. In 2022, DeWine beat Whaley in Trumbull by 33.33%. That's a 40.38% shift in one gubernatorial election.
Trump beat Harris by 17.61% in 2024. That's a 24.66% change from Republican to Democrat in two years.
The switch from Republicans to Democrats in Mahoning and Trumbull comparing this election to both 2022 and 2024 are among the highest of any counties in the state.
Democrat Sherrod Brown has long relied on landslide victories in Mahoning and Trumbull to help him win three other Senate races.
During his first win in 2006, Brown beat DeWine, who was a two-term incumbent senator, by 46.94% in Mahoning and 46.26% in Trumbull. I'll probably never again see such domination by a candidate over a sitting incumbent senator in the two counties in my lifetime.
In 2012, Brown beat Republican Josh Mandel, then state treasurer, by 37.21% in Mahoning and by 30.43% in Trumbull.
In 2018, Brown was challenged by then-U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci, a Republican, in what was supposed to be an easy win. Brown won Ohio by 6.82%.
Brown won Mahoning by 20.99% and Trumbull by 15.89%. Those are still big wins, but less than half of the percentages in 2006 in the two counties.
With Trump on the ballot, Brown lost reelection in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.62%. Brown said he couldn't overcome the support for Trump at the top of the ticket. Trump beat Harris in Ohio by 11.21%. Brown greatly outperformed Harris, but it wasn't enough.
In 2024, Brown lost Mahoning by 0.2% and Trumbull by 5.83%.
Brown had vowed to win back Mahoning and Trumbull in this election against U.S. Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican.
Brown won Ohio in the Nov. 3 election by 4.85%.
Brown won Mahoning by 7.17% and Trumbull by 2.61%.
Mahoning delivered victories for a number of other Democratic candidates, who ended up losing to Republicans because of the vote outside the county.
U.S. Rep. Michael Rulli, R-Salem, won reelection by 20.8% over Democrat Elizabeth Kirtley, who hardly campaigned for the 6th Congressional District seat. Yet Rulli lost Mahoning by 7.48%. It was the only county in his district - which takes in all or portions of 10 counties - that Rulli lost.
Rulli received 29,955 of the 64,753 votes cast in Mahoning. Rulli won 24,054 of the 34,722 votes in Columbiana. Rulli received 5,901 more votes in Mahoning compared to Columbiana with the former having nearly twice as many people cast ballots.
Incumbent Al Cutrona, R-Canfield, beat Democrat Michael Kripchak by 8.92% to win reelection to the 33rd Ohio Senate District seat. But he needed major victories in Columbiana and Carroll, the two lesser-populated counties in the district, to win as he lost Mahoning by 4.98%.
In a 7th District Court of Appeals race, Republican Mark Hanni, who was running for a different seat on that court, beat Democrat Katherine Rudzik by 13.76%.
But Hanni lost Mahoning, his home county, by 9.74%. Hanni won the district's other seven counties.
Hanni has run for judge numerous times and has never won Mahoning County. This was Hanni's second judicial victory.
When Hanni won a different court of appeals seat in 2022 by 17.2% against Democrat Gene Donofrio, a 30-year incumbent, he lost Mahoning by 11.98%. Hanni won the district's other seven counties.
Hanni's new term starts Feb. 10, 2027. Hanni's decision to switch seats in order to stay on the bench for an additional four years will cost the Republican Party a spot on the appeals bench.
That's because Gov.-elect Amy Acton's term starts Jan. 12, 2027.
Hanni could choose to resign early and DeWine could decide to undercut Acton, his former health director, and appoint a replacement. But that's a big what-if scenario.
In Trumbull, Acton's success definitely helped the Democratic candidates for county commissioner and auditor.
In very close races, Democrat Kristen Rock beat Republican Mike Hovis by 2.06% for commissioner and Democrat Ed Stredney beat Republican Mike Loychik for auditor by 1.28%.
David Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.