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Valley congressional races coming into focus

With the Feb. 4 deadline to file in partisan primaries quickly approaching, the races for the two U.S. House seats that represent the Mahoning Valley are coming into focus.

In the 14th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Dave Joyce, R-Bainbridge, filed to seek his eighth two-year term.

“I look forward to continuing to work for the great people of OH-14 and humbly ask for your continued support,” Joyce wrote in a social media post.

Democrat Bill O’Neill of Shaker Heights and Republican Mark Zetzer of Russell previously filed for the seat.

Republican Niki Frenchko of Warren filed a “statement of organization” form with the Federal Election Commission for a potential run. Frenchko also pulled nominating petitions for Trumbull County commissioner, county auditor and the 64th Ohio House District positions. But she seems to be leaning toward a congressional run.

In the 6th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Michael Rulli, R-Salem, hasn’t submitted nominating petitions as of Monday to seek reelection though he is definitely running for a second full two-year term. He was first elected in June 2024 to an unexpired term.

Those who have filed in the 6th District are Democrat Malcolm Ritchie of Dover and Julie Kelley of Sherrodsville.

Democrat William J. Kinnick of Alliance has pulled petitions for the congressional seat.

In addition to Rulli, Ritchie and Kelley, three Democrats filed statement of organization forms with the FEC for potential runs.

They are Adrian J. Vitus of Poland, Sean Michael Connolly of Canfield and Sam Barick of Minerva.

6TH DISTRICT

Besides Rulli, Ritchie, a retired U.S. Army Reserves lieutenant colonel and a retired locomotive engineer, is the only 6th Congressional District candidate to report raising money to the FEC.

Ritchie raised $6,332 with $3,403 from the candidate and had spent $4,916 as of Sept. 30.

In comparison, Rulli’s campaign raised $601,099 and spent $433,810 through the first nine months of 2025. Rulli had $275,349 in his campaign fund as of Sept. 30.

Vitus’ campaign website states he worked as a contractor for the U.S. Agency for International Development before cuts were made by the Department of Government Efficiency.

On his website, Vitus wrote: “Starting out as a kid from Ohio with big goals, I worked hard for every opportunity that I got. I heard ‘no’ a thousand times before I found success. Then they took my job, along with so many inspiring veterans and federal workers. So now, I’m coming for theirs.”

Connelly owns a tattoo business in Canfield. With redistricting, Connelly’s Canfield home is being moved with this election from the 6th District to the 14th. There is no restriction on where a congressional candidate in Ohio resides as long as the person lives in the state.

An Oct. 31 vote by the Ohio Redistricting Commission changed congressional lines.

Canfield, Jackson, Milton, Berlin, Ellsworth, Craig Beach and a portion of Austintown will move out of the 6th and into the 14th District starting with the November election.

Austintown was one of only 11 townships in the state to be split and Mahoning is among 15 counties of the state’s 88 that are being divided between two congressional districts.

The rest of Mahoning County will remain in the 6th District.

But with the removal of portions of Mahoning and the additions of parts of Stark, the latter is now the 6th District’s most-populous county, dropping Mahoning from first to second. There are 180,626 Stark County residents in the new district compared to 179,351 for Mahoning County. The two counties make up 45.76% of the district’s total population — 22.96% for Stark and 22.8% for Mahoning, according to the Ohio Secretary of State’s Office. The district’s third most-populous county remains Columbiana with 101,877 people, making up 12.95% of the 6th.

The district will see other major changes starting with the November election.

All of Tuscarawas County is being included in the district compared to only a portion currently. In addition to more of Stark County, the district is gaining portions of Wayne and Holmes counties, which are all heavily Republican.

The district will lose Monroe, Noble and Washington counties, which are also strongly Republican.

The district will keep all of Columbiana, Jefferson, Carroll, Belmont and Harrison — all strong Republican counties.

With the November election, the 6th District will favor Republicans 63.9% to 36.1% for Democrats based on partisan statewide voting results between 2016 and 2024, according to the redistricting commission. The current district favors Republicans 59.1% to 40.9% for Democrats based on partisan statewide voting results from 2014 to 2022.

14TH DISTRICT

In addition to Joyce, who filed Friday for reelection, O’Neill and Zetzer turned in nominating petitions for the position.

Joyce is the only candidate to raise money for his campaign, according to the last FEC filings. Joyce reported raising $614,917 and spending $389,166 during the first nine months of 2025. His campaign had a $3,139,352 surplus as of Sept. 30.

O’Neill, a former Ohio Supreme Court justice and 11th District Court of Appeals judge, is running for the congressional seat – a position he lost in 2008 and 2010. No other Democrat has declared for the position.

O’Neill has lost more general elections than he’s won, but has emerged as the Democratic candidate eight times: in three Ohio Supreme Court races, three for seats on the Warren-based 11th District Court of Appeals, and twice for the 14th Congressional District. The only Democratic primary he’s ever lost was for governor in 2018.

O’Neill lost the 1992 general election for a seat on the 11th District Court of Appeals, but then won races for the appeals district in 1996 and 2002. The appeals district’s boundaries are very similar to the current 14th Congressional District.

O’Neill then lost the 2004 and 2006 general elections for a seat on the Ohio Supreme Court, the 2008 and 2010 general elections for the 14th Congressional District before winning a 2012 Ohio Supreme Court race.

O’Neill resigned from the Ohio Supreme Court about a year before his term was to expire to run for governor. He lost the 2018 Democratic primary to Richard Cordray.

In seven previous elections, only one Democrat has received more than 40% of the vote against Joyce. That was Betsy Rader in 2018 with 44.8%.

Because of redistricting, the 14th will be more Republican starting with this election because of the addition of small parts of Mahoning and a change in Portage in which it is losing a Democrat portion and adding a more Republican area.

The district will favor Republicans 58.5% to 41.5% for Democrats based on partisan statewide voting results between 2016 to 2024, according to the commission. It currently favors Republicans 54.8% to 45.2% for Democrats on voting results from 2014 to 2022.

Lake will remain the most-populous county in the 14th District with Trumbull the second most-populous. The district will continue to include all of Ashtabula and Geauga counties.

Together, Lake and Trumbull have a majority of the district’s population. Lake’s 232,603 residents make up 29.57% of the district’s total population while Trumbull’s 201,977 residents are 25.68% of the district’s population.

The 49,263 residents moved in Mahoning County from the 6th to the 14th District are 6.26% of the latter’s population. It is the least-populous county in the district.

Zetzer was among three Republicans to file against Joyce in the 2024 primary, but withdrew saying he wanted to let the two others challenge Joyce. Joyce got 76.7% of the vote in the Republican primary and then 63.4% in the general election.

Zetzer also ran as a Republican in 2014 in the Cleveland-based 11th Congressional District. He lost that election by 59% to Democrat Marcia Fudge. He also came in last place in 2013 in the Shaker Heights City Council election.

Frenchko is mulling campaigns for four different seats, but is leaning toward running for the 14th Congressional District seat.

Feb. 4 is the filing deadline for the political partisan primaries being held May 5.

Frenchko, who was elected in 2020 as a county commissioner, pulled nominating petitions in the 2024 Republican primary for both county commissioner seats on the ballot. She chose to seek reelection, losing the primary by 18.6% to Rick Hernandez, who went on to win the general election.

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