Submitted graphic / Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Total employment in Ohio is predicted to decrease at an annual rate of -1.63% over the next six months, the state’s Department of Job and Family Services reports. The rate for the Youngstown-Warren Metropolitan Statistical Area is expected to be -1.76%, with the state coming in at -1.63%.

The outlook for job seekers in the Mahoning Valley will be challenging through the summer and into the fall, the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services predicted.

A regional economic agency, however, said the Valley is witnessing stabilization — and growth — in key areas. In addition, a nationally recognized economist and former Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland official questioned the state’s forecast.

“The workforce is strong, wages are rising and people are choosing to stay — and return — to this region,” said Guy Coviello, Youngstown / Warren Regional Chamber’s president and CEO.

In its April 2025 Leading Indicators report released Wednesday, the Department of Job and Family Services predicted the workforce in Mahoning and Trumbull counties will shrink 1.76% over the next six months. That represents the second-worst drop in the state, followed by the Cincinnati Metropolitan Statistical Area’s projected loss of 1.77%. Statewide, the six-month number is -1.63%.

Valley native Dr. Gary A. Wagner, who conducts research and analysis at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, questioned the state’s analysis.

“The projections in the state report do not align very closely with projections for the national economy over the next six months or with the recent trends in payroll job growth for Ohio and the Youngstown-Warren MSA,” the Warren native said Thursday.

Referring to a recent GDP forecast and Federal Reserve Bank survey, Wagner said payroll job growth is expected to rise.

He referred to a survey of professional forecasters released in May. Starting in the second quarter of 2025, year-over-year payroll job growth is expected to increase each quarter through March 2026.

Wagner then said a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis survey showed the Valley’s actual year-over-year payroll job growth figures move up from December 2024 through May. Monthly increases ranged from 0.36% to 1.32%.

“None of those projections in the survey of professional forecasters over the next six months are showing anything remotely close to what those numbers are suggesting,” Wagner said.

Prior to the state’s workforce announcement, the chamber on Monday highlighted positive economic numbers in a news release.

The chamber pointed to data illustrating the Valley is “entering a period of steady growth, marked by increases in civilian labor force, population and wages.”

Among the topics:

*Labor force: Staffing in the Valley returned to 2020 levels with 231,000 workers in 2024, according to the Federal Reserve Bank.

“This trend marks a shift toward workforce recovery and reflects strengthening employer confidence and regional job availability,” the chamber said.

*Population: The research firm MacroTrends noted the Valley has witnessed an incremental rise in population. In 2024, approximately 353,000 resided in the region. That marked a 0.28% increase.

*Wages: From 2023 to 2024, average hourly wages in the Valley grew from $25.23 to $26.13, a 3.6% increase, according to Federal Reserve data.

Since 2008, average hourly earnings grew 25.6%, rising from $20.81, the chamber said.

Coupled with the area’s lower cost of living, the long-term wage trend illustrates “ongoing progress in labor market strength and economic recovery,” the chamber said.

“These are meaningful trends that show progress,” Coviello said. “Through our work in expanding talent pipelines, addressing workforce barriers and supporting housing access, we’re laying the groundwork for long-term economic growth.”

Teresa Miller, executive director of Valley Economic Development Partners, agreed the Valley is hedging in a positive direction.

“We’re seeing the results of strategic investments, resilient small businesses and strong community partnerships. While challenges remain, this momentum gives us every reason to be optimistic about the future of our local economy.”

In another report the jobs and family agency released in a holiday-shortened work week, unemployment claims rose slightly from the previous week. For the period of June 22-June 28, Ohioans filed 5,264 initial unemployment claims. That’s approximately 350 more than the prior filing session.

Continued unemployment claims from last week numbered 49,491, an increase of 455 than the prior week.

The state unemployment rate in May was 4.9%, with the national unemployment rate at 4.2%. It ticked down slightly to 4.1% in June.

Ohio’s labor force participation rate in May was 62.7%. The national labor force

participation rate in May was 62.4%.

Trumbull County’s employment rate in April was 6.6% with Mahoning County’s at 5.7%, the state reported.