Before the 2016 election, it was difficult to believe that Republicans could make major inroads in Mahoning and Trumbull counties, two Democratic strongholds since 1936.

Tuesday’s election shows how much politics in the two counties has changed.

The Republicans swept every race on Tuesday’s ballot in Trumbull County — as they did in 2022 — while the party’s candidates won all but two contested elections in Mahoning County.

“We have successfully turned the tide in Mahoning County,” said Tex Fischer, the county Republican Party’s vice chairman and a state representative who won his election by 11.4%. “Not only are the days of Democrats winning over, but the days of feeling that Democrats can compete in Mahoning County are over.”

The races won by Republicans in Mahoning County — a county commissioner seat, prosecutor, clerk of courts and recorder — were by less than 2% in three cases and by 3% for recorder. But Fischer said it continues a trend in which Republicans did well in 2022 as well as losing by smaller margins in 2020 than in 2016. The countywide executive branch races on the 2026 and 2028 ballots will prove Republican dominance in Mahoning County, he said.

Much of the credit, Fischer said, goes to Donald Trump, the first Republican presidential candidate to twice win Mahoning since the county electorate switched from Republican to Democratic with the 1936 election.

“A shift was always there, but it took Trump to catalyze it,” he said. “Trump is the force that made people comfortable to make the switch to Republican.”

Fischer said Trumbull County, which voted for Trump in all three of his elections, was ahead of Mahoning in that respect.

Trumbull voted in 2020 for Republican Niki Frenchko for commissioner and then for Republicans Denny Malloy for commissioner and Martha Yoder for auditor in 2022. In that 2022 election, every Republican on the ballot — including statewide candidates and state legislators — won in Trumbull.

Every Republican candidate in Trumbull won election Tuesday, with some beating a number of long-time Democratic officeholders.

None of the Republicans running for executive branch seats in the county matched Trump’s 16.6% victory over Democrat Kamala Harris, with Agostino Ragozzino’s 9.9% win over Democrat James Melfi in the open county treasurer’s race being the largest margin of victory. Except for treasurer and the two county commissioner races, the margins of victory for the other Republicans were 3.5% and lower.

Marleah Campbell, Trumbull Republican Party secretary, said of the GOP success in the county: “Part of it started in 2016 with Trump. But honestly, I believe the way the country is headed with immigration, taxes and inflation, people realized the Democratic Party isn’t taking them where they want to be. They want change and (Tuesday) night they got it. The message I heard from voters was we need change and every (incumbent) needs to go. We had some obstacles to go with name recognition, but I think name recognition has a shelf life and those days have passed.”

Campbell added: “We put good candidates forward and we pulled it off. Our candidates and our volunteers worked very hard.”

Campbell said it will be up to the newly-elected officeholders to prove themselves to voters to keep Trumbull a Republican county.

“Whether the red wave continues and people vote for change will depend on how these people perform their duty,” she said. “If they like it they’ll continue to vote Republican. They have earned the vote. Now they have to keep the trust.”

Trumbull Republican Party Chairman Mike Bollas said the turnout in the county is most likely because of Trump as his “policies were good for the country when he was president. The economy was great and the border was secure and everything was working well. When he got out, things changed and people didn’t like what was going on. That likely helped our candidates.”

Kathy DiCristofaro, Trumbull County Democratic Party vice chairwoman, said her party had “more experienced, more qualified candidates” than the Republicans. “It wasn’t a lack of effort and it’s disappointing.”

DiCristofaro said, “The electorate has changed in Trumbull County in the past four years. We don’t deny that, but that does not change our belief that we offer voters choices. We’ll continue to work hard. The community deserves that. Trumbull County is a Republican county for the first time in 90 years. It is the trend, but I believe we can win it back. We have to find ways to inform the electorate that we have the most qualified candidates.”

Trumbull Democratic Party Chairman Mark Alberini said for several voters “personal responsibility, qualifications and integrity didn’t matter as much as we thought they would.”

Alberini described Tuesday’s outcome as “a gut punch to me. It’s a new day and we move on. We lick our wounds and hold our head high and work for the next election.”

Alberini said having Trump as the Republican presidential nominee was too much for his party to overcome.

Asked if Trumbull is a Republican county, Alberini said, “It does appear that way on the surface. Trumbull County is a red county on Election Day. There are a lot of Democrats out there and unaffiliated voters. We have failed to motivate them on Election Day as much as the Republicans have.’

After Tuesday’s winners start serving, nine of Trumbull’s 11 executive branch elected officeholders will be Republicans. The only two Democrats are Prosecutor Dennis Watkins and Coroner Lawrence M. D’Amico, who both ran unopposed Tuesday.

There will be six Republicans and five Democrats in Mahoning County’s executive branch after four were elected Tuesday. Sheriff Jerry Greene, who ran unopposed, switched political parties with this election from Democrat to Republican and Auditor Ralph Meacham was first elected in 2014, and subsequently reelected twice, when incumbent Democrat Michael Sciortino was under criminal indictment and subsequently convicted.

Mahoning County Democratic Chairman Chris Anderson said his party’s candidates, volunteers and supporters worked tirelessly, and they won’t give up the fight.

Anderson pinned part of the blame for the losses on Republican policies that drive people out of Ohio.

“This is a state issue as our chief export is young talent,” he said. “It’s very easy to get everyone to agree with you when everyone who disagrees with you moves out of state.”

Asked if the trend of backing Republicans in Mahoning County will continue, Anderson said, “I don’t know,” and specifically mentioned Republican Michael Ciccone who beat Clerk of Courts Dan Dascenzo, a Democrat, in Tuesday’s election.

“There’s no denying (Trump’s) coattails carried these people,” Anderson said. Ciccone “literally put his name on the ballot and Donald Trump carried him across the finish line.”

Tom McCabe, Mahoning Republican chairman, said: “That’s what happened to us for 90 years. Put a D after your name and you could elect a dog over the pope.”

Anderson said if Trump’s name wasn’t at the top of the ballot, “every Democratic candidate crushes the Republican candidates. Mahoning County will continue to be an incredibly competitive county especially with Republicans driving young people out of Ohio.”

McCabe disagrees, saying in four years, J.D. Vance, a U.S. senator from Ohio and the vice president-elect, will run for president.

“How will Democrats overcome an Ohio boy as the presidential candidate?” McCabe said. “I’m optimistic for our future.”

McCabe said it took him eight years to convince Greene to switch his party affiliation and he plans to ask three of the remaining Democratic officeholders to consider it.

He specifically mentioned Commissioner Anthony Traficanti, who narrowly was reelected Tuesday, along with Engineer Patrick Ginnetti and Coroner David Kennedy, who ran unopposed Tuesday.

The four, if they choose, can run for reelection in 2028.