Recent extreme weather conditions and unseasonably high temperatures are part of a much larger

issue than people are aware of. On the small scale, people could look at the forecast and simply

be confused, and slightly upset, that the high temperature is 84 degrees at the beginning of

October. Looking at the bigger picture, these conditions are affecting the community at large, the

economy and the world in very crucial locations.

Data from the National Weather Service shows that May

and September of 2023 were very dry, receiving 1.30

inches and 0.78 inches of precipitation respectively.

Compared to the levels in the past two years, this is very

low. In May and September 2022, the NWS recorded

4.26 inches and 2.82 inches respectively. 2021 shows

4.03 inches and 1.30 inches.

To most, these figures don’t provide much information

or impact, especially as the September numbers

fluctuate.

Nick

Moliterno, Senior Weather Observer at the Youngstown-Warren Airport, said

data and records are dynamic.

“There have been plenty of drought-filled summers. 1988, for example, was a drought-filled,

very hot summer, one that was worse than this past summer. Even though, overall, the nation had

the ‘hottest summer on record,'” Moliterno said. “They [meteorologists] can pick and choose

what they want to report on and by educating ourselves, not just on record keeping, but on ways

we can reduce our impact will help everyone overall.”

The summer of 1988, according to the National Weather Service, had multiple days reaching 100

degrees and overall, July was the hottest. The normal average temperature is 82.7 degrees, the

average in that month was 88 degrees.

Many factors can account for the patterns of temperatures and precipitation recorded in the

Youngstown area, some being the effects of the Great Lakes on rain and snowfall as well as

global phenomena like El Niño and La Niña. According to the National Ocean Service, El Niño

The soil and grass discolor as the moisture dries, or less rain falls.

is where “trade winds weaken. Warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the

Americas.”

Eric Wilhelm, Chief Meteorologist at WFMJ, said El Niño showed this summer to be a cooler

one.

“The cooler summer was expected this year, as summers where El Niño is emerging in the

Pacific tend to be on the cooler side in our part of the country,” Wilhelm said.

Moliterno said that he finds recent weather trends to be fascinating.

“Over the last two to three summers, we have trended warmer and dryer. However we’re in an El

Niño cycle, and if you go back into record keeping and do the math and find other El Niño

cycles, you find the same result,” he said.

Moliterno said from a meteorological standpoint, the trends take time to be officially labeled

trends, with data averages over the course of 25 to 30 years being compiled and analyzed to

determine trends in any statistic.

He said for the area, over the last half century’s worth of data, nothing too dangerous of note has

happened.

“Record keeping has been going on in this area for a very long time, and I’m thankful after

analyzing 50 to 75 years worth of data, nothing this summer stood out to me that hasn’t occurred

in summers past, specifically referencing ’88 and ’89 for example,” Moliterno said.

He also said for data and other patterns to make more sense, he encourages people to stay

educated and informed.

Summer of 2023 was not a dangerously hot one for the Youngstown area, but as Moliterno said,

the nation overall experienced a record-breaking high overall. He isn’t worried about any climate

disasters occurring in the near future, as the records show that patterns like this and worse have

happened with nothing to really show.

On a larger scale and in other locations, it did. Youngstown and other cities and states in the east

experienced the flowing smoke from the wildfires in Canada. These fires were caused by the dry,

hot weather and lightning. Fluctuations in weather can have larger consequences.

Jennifer Burrell, geography instructor at Youngstown State University, details a variety of

events that have and could happen given changes in weather and climate:

“A report that came out suggesting the Gulf Stream is weakening, which would have huge

implications on weather patterns and ocean circulation patterns, which would then change

marine migration patterns and fishing for us or fisheries in general,” Burrell said. “Now where

we are is looking at longer growing seasons, which can be great but is also unpredictable”

Although many people enjoy unseasonable warm temps in the fall, their effects can be

concerning, she said.

“If we start getting some 80 degree temperatures when we’re supposed to be down in the 60s,

that means everything that is going into dormancy for fall time and into the winter starts to wake

up,” Burrell said. “Migrations of different animals are getting confused and not migrating at the

right time. Insects like mosquitoes have a higher chance to infect animals with diseases like West

Nile and Zika.”

Burrell completed her PhD on ways climate affected neighborhoods and how they struggled with

food and upkeep. Her research viewed the parallels between an economic disaster and a natural

disaster.

“I would drive around different neighborhoods in Youngstown and record with a video camera. I

would record what the build environment looked like and through that, I realized that there was

this huge socioeconomic component to it,” Burrell said. “Urban gardens were used to help build

community ties and fill vacant lots.”

She collected her data first via Google Street View data dated in 2011, then did her recordings

four times a year from 2013 to 2015.

These communities lacking the care or funds from the government are not the only factors that

could lead to unhealthy environments for people or plants to inhabit. Burrell explains:

“As we keep chipping away at our ecosystems and environment in general, we’re potentially not

going to have the ‘breadbasket of America’ anymore if we keep experiencing the drought the

way we are,” she said.

Communities are experiencing adverse effects of water shortages, she said.

“We don’t have energy and with a fragile infrastructure of power grids, this is an issue. If you

have people running their ACs all the time, especially outside of the normal time frame, or

season for it, that’s another strain on energy,” Burrell said. “All of this encompasses ending up

with a public that doesn’t have access to a healthy supply of anything. They don’t have healthy

water, air or soil.”

She goes on further to say the lack of clean air further damages the economy through agricultural

problems and then spirals rapidly.

Both Moliterno and Burrell said the recent summer and its conditions were not remarkable in the

big picture regarding high temperatures and low rainfall, but Burrell said these “blips” on the

collective radar can become negative patterns.

“I always tell my classes, it’s one thing to have a blip because we’re going to have natural

variations, but when those blips become normal and frequent, that’s when it’s no longer just a

blip. That’s when it’s becoming a trend, the new way.”

She also said the pandemic of 2020 and onwards acted as a sort of “reset button.” With people

inside their homes for a long period of time, the emissions were cut down and the environment

responded quickly to it, recovering and healing in a sense.

Nick Moliterno, Senior Weather Observer, Youngstown-Warren Airport, 330-240-1188,

nickgmoliterno@gmail.com

Jennifer Burrell, Part Time Faculty, Geography Department, Youngstown State University, 330-

941-3317, jlburrell@ysu.edu

Eric Wilhelm, Chief Meteorologist, WFMJ-TV, 330-744-8611 ext. 403,

ericwilhelm@wfmj.com,

Research from:

National Weather Service: weather.gov

National Ocean Service: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html