Every four years, the presidential race is the largest factor driving voter turnout.

So with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the clear front-runners for the Democratic and Republican nominations, respectively, and the races expected to be finished by Ohio’s March 19 primary, election directors in Mahoning and Trumbull counties don’t expect large turnouts.

Turnout percentage in Trumbull County is expected to be in the upper 30s, said Stephanie Penrose, director of the board of elections. That is mostly because of contested county commissioner primaries for Republicans and Democrats, she said.

“There are a few other races of interest on the ballot,” Penrose said.

She pointed to two Democratic judicial races — for common pleas court general division judge and for domestic relations / juvenile court judge — and to Republican primaries for clerk of courts and sheriff as well as a state Senate seat.

“I hope the local races will bring people out,” Penrose said.

Tom McCabe, director of the Mahoning County Board of Elections, expects turnout to be close to 30%.

“There will be low turnout for Republicans and very, very low turnout for Democrats,” he said.

There are contested primaries for both parties for the open 6th Congressional District seat, though there is more interest in the Republican race as the district is considered a safe Republican one, McCabe said.

Also, the three-man Republican primary for the U.S. Senate nomination is attracting the attention of GOP voters, he said.

“Presidential primaries drive turnout in presidential years and both parties have their candidates so there won’t be a lot of people voting,” McCabe said.

Also, McCabe pointed out that while all registered voters can cast ballots in primaries, most of them aren’t affiliated with either of the two major parties so they will skip voting and wait until the Nov. 5 general election.

“There’s no motivation for undeclared people to come out” March 19, he said.

As for his prediction, McCabe said that 30% “sounds low, but it’s higher than 2020.”

Turnout in the 2012 presidential primary was 29.62% in Mahoning and 24.74% in Trumbull.

It jumped in the 2016 primary to 44.87% in Mahoning and 47.19% in Trumbull. That was because of the contested Republican presidential primary that pitted Trump against John Kasich, then the governor of Ohio, and to a lesser extent, the Democratic primary between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, McCabe and Penrose said.

Turnout in 2020 was 23.36% in Mahoning and 27.94% in Trumbull.

The political parties had settled on Biden and Trump in 2020 by the time of Ohio’s primary and the state postponed that primary from March 16 to April 28 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic also led to the only time the state closed all voting precincts and had an election conducted by mail.

EARLY VOTING

Early voting for this primary starts Wednesday.

Early in-person voting is 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Wednesday to Friday.

It is also from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Feb. 26 to March 1 as well as March 4 to 8.

It is 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. March 9.

Early in-person voting is 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. March 11, 7:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. March 12, and 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. March 13 to 15.

It is 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. March 16, the Saturday before the primary, and 1 to 5 p.m. March 17, the Sunday before the primary.

The Trumbull office is at 2947 Youngstown Road SE, Warren.

The Mahoning office is at Oakhill Renaissance Place, 345 Oak Hill Ave., Youngstown.

“We’ve been trending the last few elections with people voting in person than by mail,” Penrose said. “But it’s a March election so the snowbirds in Florida and Arizona will vote by mail.”

McCabe said: “We’re not expecting a rush of early voting, but much of it will be in-person.”

Polling locations are open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. March 19.

Those voting by mail have to submit applications for ballots to boards of elections by 8:30 p.m. March 12.

Absentee ballots must be postmarked by March 18, the day before the primary, and have to arrive no later than March 23 to be counted.

County election boards in Ohio will remain open until 9 p.m. Tuesday to allow people to register to vote in the upcoming primary election if they aren’t already registered voters. It’s the final day to do so.

To register in person, you need either your driver’s license number or state ID and the last four digits of your Social Security number.

People can also register online at voteohio.gov, the Ohio secretary of state’s website, by 9 p.m. Tuesday.

VOTER ID

An approved photo identification is needed to vote early in-person and at the polling locations.

To vote those ways, a person needs one of the following: a driver’s license, a state ID card, a passport, a passport card or a military ID.

Those who vote by mail can use either their driver’s license ID number or the last four digits of their Social Security number.

A state law that took effect with the May 2023 election eliminated several forms of ID that were previously acceptable. That included bank statements, utility bills, pay stubs, government checks and the last four digits of a person’s Social Security number.

McCabe and Penrose said an overwhelming majority of voters show a photo ID when voting.

dskolnick@vindy.com