Ryan, Vance in dead heat for Senate seat, poll shows

A poll commissioned by Democrat Tim Ryan’s U.S. Senate campaign shows a statistical dead heat for the seat with Republican J.D. Vance.

The poll shows Ryan with 48 percent support compared to 46 percent for Vance and 6 percent undecided. The poll has a 3.4 percent margin of error.

Impact Research, formerly known as ALG Research and a Democratic polling firm, did the survey on behalf of Ryan’s campaign.

The poll was conducted June 27 to 30 of 816 likely voters in the Nov. 8 Senate race.

A memo from Impact Research and the Ryan Senate campaign states the poll was taken shortly after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and shows that “Ryan enters July well known and well liked among likely voters while J.D. Vance is badly damaged. Vance’s unique weakness with the general electorate, combined with Ryan’s own strengths, gives Ryan a path to victory in this otherwise Republican-leaning state.”

The poll shows Vance has greater name identification at 88 percent than Ryan at 81 percent.

Of those polled, 46 percent have a favorable opinion of Ryan compared with 35 unfavorable. For Vance, 38 view him favorably to 49 percent unfavorably. Also, 39 percent view Vance very unfavorably to 16 percent who view him very favorably, according to the poll.

Ryan is viewed positively by 78 percent of those who voted for Democrat Joe Biden for president in 2020 and by 20 percent of those who voted for Republican Donald Trump.

The poll memo states Ryan has “consolidated support” among 2020 Biden voters — 93 percent for him, 3 percent for Vance and 3 percent undecided — and is “picking off more than 1 in 10 Trump voters” with 11 percent support, 85 percent for Vance and 5 percent undecided. The numbers don’t add to 100 percent because of rounding.

Kyle Kondik, a national expert who analyzes elections for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and a northeast Ohio native, said Impact Research “is one of the firms on the Democratic side that is well-respected.”

Kondik said Vance is still the “clear favorite in the race, but I’ve heard it’s relatively close. It will be the most competitive of the nonjudicial statewide races in Ohio.”

The poll, conducted right after the landmark abortion rights case decision, “may have been catching Ryan at the highest of high points. If you went into the field today you may find something different.”

The poll also will show major Democratic political action committees and donors that Ryan is a legitimate candidate in an effort to attract more money to his campaign, Kondik said.

A June 1 poll by the USA Today Network Ohio and Suffolk University showed Vance with 41.6 percent and Ryan with 39.4 percent. That was within the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error.



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