Ruth Bader Ginsburg is one of the most iconic Supreme Court justices in decades, but the fight over her replacement has the potential to permanently damage the reputation of the nation’s highest court, area political experts say.

Ginsburg, 87, died Friday of complications from metastatic pancreatic cancer leaving behind a legacy as a champion of women’s and civil rights. The day she died, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the Senate would vote for a replacement. It would be the latest confirmation vote during a presidential election year before Election Day for a Supreme Court justice in the nation’s history.

“It’s going to add more chaos to an already chaotic election,” said Bill Binning, retired chairman of Youngstown State University’s political science department. “This is going to add more drama to this election.”

With Ginsburg’s death, conservatives now control the Supreme Court 5-3 and putting another

conservative on the high bench would alter its balance for decades to come.

Also, on March 16, 2016, then-President Barack Obama, a Democrat, nominated Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court to fill the vacancy created by the death of Antonin Scalia. The Republican-controlled Senate refused to hold a hearing or a vote on the nomination insisting the next president should make the appointment.

Since then, McConnell has said he’d allow Republican Donald Trump’s nomination in the last year of his first term as president to be considered and reiterated that after Ginsburg’s death.

He said the difference is with Garland there was a Democratic president and a Republican-controlled Senate in Obama’s last year while this year there is a Republican president and the GOP has the majority in the Senate.

This ignores the 97-0 confirmation by a Democrat-controlled Senate on Feb. 3, 1988, of Anthony Kennedy to the Supreme Court by Republican Ronald Reagan in the last year of his second term as president.

Republicans can stop the confirmation hearings for Trump’s eventual nomination if they can’t get 50 votes to support it. Republicans control the Senate with 53 votes, but there is talk of some of its members opting to wait.

“The whole thing falls apart if Republicans don’t go along with it,” said Capri Cafaro, a former Ohio Senate minority leader who serves as executive in residence at The American University’s School of Public Affairs and is a Fox News commentator. “McConnell’s in a challenging position. There’s pressure to get this done. It could cost him the Senate majority.”

A Supreme Court confirmation “energizes both sides. The courts are one of the reasons traditional Republicans voted for Trump. But we’re also dealing with a liberal icon. It touches the base of the Democratic Party.”

Paul Sracic, chairman of YSU’s politics and international relations department, said: “We’re toward the end of this election. Both sides will look hypocritical on this. The institution of the court is valued, and I hope that’s remembered. I hope we don’t destroy the Supreme Court through politics. The unfortunate thing is the fight over her replacement can destroy the institution she fought for.”

The Republicans’ intention is to seat a justice before the Nov. 3 election, which puts some vulnerable GOP senators on the hot seat, Cafaro said.

“The way they handle this will rub people the wrong way,” she said “It’s less likely that Republicans could be in the majority now than it was 24 hours ago.”

Sracic wonders if the votes are there.

There’s also a possibility that a vote waits until after the election.

It can’t be discounted that Trump loses and Republicans lose control of the Senate.

But Sracic said if that happens, “it would be so hard to get the votes. It would be so disturbing to people.”

Also, if Democrats gain control of the Senate, they could respond by increasing the number of justices, he said.

“There’s almost no good outcome to this,” Sracic said.

Binning said there’s the possibility of waiting until after the election for a vote.

“Republicans want to move forward especially if Trump loses,” he said. “Republicans are not going to accept them not doing anything. I think (Trump) is going to use it to his political advantage. Democrats are going to rant and rave and say it should wait until the new president is in place. Democrats will respond, but I don’t know what they can do to stop it. It falls into the hands of four Republicans to decide if the Senate moves forward.”

Binning said the vacancy will immediately be a top issue in Senate elections and likely in 2022 elections for senators.

“If they wait until after the election and Trump loses and Republicans lose the Senate, can they get 50 votes?” he said. “It’s not good for the courts. It’s better if they hold up until after a president is sworn in for the legitimacy of the courts. Otherwise it makes the courts look political, but they probably won’t listen.”

RGB LEGACY

Regarding Ginsburg’s legacy, Binning said she “leaves a phenomenal one. She is one of the most significant people on the Supreme Court in the last few decades, if not in history. She had a big effect on women’s issues and her determination to succeed and rise up is an inspiration to many.”

Sracic said Ginsburg “is arguably the most famous justice in modern history. For the most part, justices are anonymous. Ruth Bader Ginsburg is different. She’s iconic.”

Cafaro described her as “a fervent advocate for women’s rights and civil justice and equality. Her overall legacy is profound all the way back to her academic career as the first female professor at Columbia Law School and being the second woman appointed to the Supreme Court.”

dskolnick@tribtoday.com