NILES — Tapping into your emotions when it comes to the economy? Probably feeling miserable.

The numbers point to a better situation.

Chad Oviatt sees a disconnect taking place with the soft data — consumer confidence and consumer sentiment, for example — and what is occurring with the consumer pocketbook.

“When you look at what people are saying, it’s been on a negative trend,” said Oviatt, chief investment officer and senior vice president for First National Bank’s Wealth Management division. “They don’t feel good about their current situation. They’re worried about inflation; they’re worried about a lot of things.

“The bottom line is retail sales, so actual consumption continues to trend higher.”

Oviatt served as the featured speaker Wednesday during the Youngstown / Warren Regional Chamber’s annual economic forecast at the Eastwood Event Center.

He said consumers are continuing to buy.

“So we hear consumers saying, ‘Yeah, we don’t feel real great about this,’ but they continue to spend.”

It’s one of many areas economists are tracking.

Oviatt also delved into the impact the artificial intelligence industry was having on the national economy.

“We know that AI is a major driver of the U.S. economy right now,” he said.

He noted that four companies have invested $344 billion this year into AI.

“That $344 billion is bigger than 142 different economies around the world, according to the IMF International Monetary Fund.That’s wild,” he said. “Now these things can actually help us here in the Valley. This capital expenditure is not just unique to these four.

“There’s a lot of spending on technology, and there may be some displacement of jobs, but arguably, we’re going to end up at a point where we’re working with AI.”

Oviatt said he and his team at First National Bank do not see the nation heading to an “immediate and imminent” recession.

“We’re probably in a bit of a malaise, and then we’ll see the U.S. economy reaccelerate in 2026,” he said.

Guy Coviello, president and CEO of the Regional Chamber, said Oviatt’s presentation validated his view of the Valley’s economy.

He said the layoff announcements at Ultium Cells in Lordstown and Lordstown’s ban on future AI data centers represent a hiccup in economic development locally.

“For the first time in probably eight years, an economic development event turned out a WARN notice,” he said. “I grew up here where WARN notices and those levels of events were happening every year, every other year. We’ve had a nice run here for a while.”

Coviello said the positive developments will continue.

“We do think it’s going to be a good 2026 and a good rest of the decade.”

Earlier in the program, Youngstown native Christine Alexander-Rager, M.D., received the Valley Champion Award. She is the president and CEO of MetroHealth System.

The Excellence in Manufacturing Award went to Redex Industries. The Salem company’s signature product is its Udderly Smooth line of skin products.

Brett Ponton, CEO of SERVPRO Industries LLC, provided the keynote address.