Low interest in Valley’s high unemployment rate
But local labor force has grown by 4,000 in 4 years
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In a few weeks, the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services will release its monthly ranking of unemployment rates for the state's 88 counties.
Barring a seismic economic shift, Trumbull and Mahoning counties will find themselves atop the list for October. And the news, like each release before it, will be met with an underwhelming "Meh."
Starting in April and continuing through September, Trumbull County owned the No. 1 spot relating to the statewide unemployment rate. In June, it shared the distinction with Athens County. During the six-month period, Trumbull's rate ranged from 4.1% to 5.1%.
Neighboring Mahoning County stayed close as it obtained the second through seventh positions at various times during the same time frame. In fact, for August and September, it was Trumbull No. 1 and Mahoning No. 2.
"It’s something that is disheartening to hear," Trumbull County Commissioner Rick Hernandez said. "As these numbers go, they go up and down."
And yet, unemployment numbers aren't the best gauge of economic health.
"It’s just one statistic that is easily understood, and that’s why it’s commonly reported on," said Albert J. Sumell, Youngstown State University economics professor. "But you can have situations where unemployment goes down and the economy is actually becoming less healthy, or the unemployment rate goes up, and the economy is actually becoming more healthy.
"That’s because it only looks at the percentage of people who are actively looking for a job who cannot find a job."
Situations change. Today's Mahoning Valley workforce has little semblance to its manufacturing roots. Stories of the steel industry's heyday and General Motors' dominance are ingrained in the region's psyche.
Going back to 1990 -- the earliest of the state's online employment records -- Trumbull had a labor force of 110,700 workers while Mahoning reported 118,700 laborers. Thirty-six years later,
that amount dwindled to 86,500 (September) in Trumbull and 101,800 (September) in Mahoning.
Here's something else. In 1990 Mahoning averaged 8,700 unemployed workers. In September, that number was 4,700. For Trumbull, the county averaged 8,600 in 1990 while the state reported 4,200 laborers out of work in September.
"When you’re comparing the current situation to 1990, there has been so much that has changed that would be essentially camouflaged in the numbers that it’s hard to directly compare that long of a period of time just based on those numbers," Sumell said.
Focus on what is happening now, one community business leader said.
"The Valley’s economy is about more than unemployment rankings," said Guy Coviello, president and CEO of the Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber. "We need to look at longer-term trends, workforce growth and investments creating new opportunities for residents."
He pointed to Federal Reserve labor statistics that show the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman metropolitan area’s civilian labor force grew by nearly 4,000 people between 2021 and 2025. Expanding the region to include western Pennsylvania, the labor force participation gap narrowed from 6.1 percentage points in 2024 to 4.9 points in March 2026.
"The unemployment rankings remain a concern, but there’s an important distinction: Both Mahoning and Trumbull counties had lower unemployment rates in September than they did two years ago, even though their statewide rankings have worsened," Coviello said. "That tells us the rankings reflect where counties stand relative to one another, not necessarily whether their unemployment rates are rising or falling.
"A lower unemployment rate also doesn’t necessarily mean more people are working. It can reflect people leaving the labor force rather than finding jobs."
Sumell called the employment situation in the Mahoning Valley "relatively stable."
There’s a modest, between 0.2 to 0.3 percentage point, change, month by month," he said. "Don’t overanalyze an increase in the unemployment rate as a suggestion that there’s something wrong or something bad happening in the overall economy."
Hernandez, a veteran officeholder, has witnessed this dance before.
"It’s no secret about gas prices and business in general. It’s put a strain on the economy," he said. "Other areas that might be able to sustain themselves a little bit better.
"We got to ramp those (economic) numbers up, but I can tell you that we’re always working with Lake to River (Economic Development), we’re working with JobsOhio. We have opportunities, but you have to have communities that are ripe and open for those opportunities too."
Hernandez and Coviello each pointed to the developments involving personal-care paper manufacturer Kimberly-Clark and electric-vehicle company turned data center equipment supplier Foxconn.
"Originally, we were told there’s approximately 400 employees there (at Kimberly-Clark), but that’s supposed to ramp up into well over 1,000 employees once they get fully operational," Hernandez said. "I am optimistic moving forward that you know these numbers will propel upwards as we get fully staffed at some of the new operations."
The regional chamber CEO noted that 500 jobs are slated for the Youngstown Innovation Hub for Aerospace & Defense.
"These investments also create supply chain and procurement opportunities that could lead to further employment growth among Valley businesses," Coviello said.