US gas boom is weak tool against Russian coercionPublished: 3/13/14 @ 12:00
The United States, with its abundant supplies of natural gas, would seem to have an easy answer to Europe’s fears that a strong response to Russia’s rapid takeover of Ukraine’s Crimea region could prompt Vladimir Putin to shut down gas lines that keep European homes warm, factories humming and electricity flowing.
Trouble is: Right now, there’s no way to get meaningful American supplies across the Atlantic Ocean.
Turning U.S. natural gas into liquefied natural gas (LNG), a process that makes the fuel transportable by ship, is very expensive. Beyond that, the U.S. government has — until recently — been stingy with permits to build those facilities. And regulations make it difficult to sell U.S. gas to nations that aren’t in free-trade compacts with Washington.
That’s not good news for Europeans, who are dependent on Russia for at least 30 percent of its natural gas. Consequently, Europe’s reaction to the Russian seizure of Ukraine’s semiautonomous Crimea, though noisy, has little teeth.
Moscow already has a history of cutting some supplies to Europe. In 2009, Europeans shivered through part of the cold winter because Moscow turned the taps off in a dispute with Ukraine over the price of gas. Some of the pipelines carrying Russian gas pass through Ukraine. And Ukraine once again is in hock to Moscow for $1.89 billion in gas bills.
European dependence on Russian gas no doubt played into Kremlin leader Putin’s calculus when his forces took control of the Crimean Peninsula, home to Moscow’s Black Sea fleet and 60 percent populated by ethnic Russians. Natural gas is Russia’s trump card.
And though U.S. gas supplies might have given Putin pause before he initiated the current crisis, he knew the United States could not quickly make up any shortages.
The crisis in Ukraine is expected to drag on even after Crimea’s status is resolved, and Europe could be waiting a while for new exports of liquefied natural gas from the U.S. The first are not expected until late 2015 from a Louisiana facility. President Barack Obama’s Energy Department has approved only six LNG export applications in the past four years. All of those, aside from the Louisiana operation, aren’t likely to be in operation until 2017.