Having health insurance used to hinge on where you worked and what your medical history said. Soon that won’t matter, with open- access markets for subsidized coverage coming Oct. 1 under President Barack Obama’s overhaul.
But there’s a new wild card, something that didn’t seem so critical when Congress passed the Affordable Care Act back in 2010: where you live.
Entrenched political divisions over “Obamacare,” have driven most Republican-led states to turn their backs on the biggest expansion of the social safety net in a half century. If you’re uninsured in a state that’s opposed, you may not get much help picking the right private health plan for your budget and your family’s needs.
The differences will be more glaring if you’re poor and your state rejected the law’s Medicaid expansion. Unless leaders reverse course, odds are you’ll remain uninsured. That’s because people below the poverty line do not qualify for subsidies to buy coverage in the markets.
“We are going to have a new environment where consumers may be victims of geography,” said Sam Karp of the California HealthCare Foundation, a nonprofit helping states tackle practical problems of implementation. “If I’m a low-wage earner in California, I may qualify for Medicaid. With the exact same income in Texas, I may not qualify.”
The health-care law is finally leaving the drawing boards to become a real program with citizens participating. But in many parts of the country, the decisions of Republicans opposed to the law will trump the plans of Democrats who wrote it.
Still, there is a new bottom line. Health-insurance marketplaces in every state will provide options for millions of people who don’t have job-based coverage, who can’t afford their own plan or have a health problem that would get them turned down. The feds will run the markets in states that refused to do so.
The coverage won’t be free, even after sliding-scale subsidies keyed to your income.
That’s significant because starting next year, most Americans also will have a legal obligation to get covered or face fines. Some people who now purchase bare-bones individual plans will complain the new ones cost too much. Others, in good health, may resent the government telling them to purchase insurance they don’t think they need.
Nonetheless, the number of uninsured people is expected to drop markedly, bringing the United States closer to other economically advanced countries that guarantee coverage.
The combination of subsidized private insurance through the new markets, plus expanded Medicaid in states accepting it, could reduce the number of uninsured by one-fourth or more next year. Current estimates of the uninsured range from around 49 million to well over 50 million.
As Americans get more familiar with the law — and if more states accept the Medicaid expansion — millions more should gain coverage. Many of the remaining uninsured will be people living in the country illegally. They are not entitled to benefits.