After Tuesday’s death of Hugo Chavez, Venezuela faces near-term political uncertainty that could bring further turmoil to its oil industry.
The country’s oil exports fell by nearly half during Chavez’s 14 years as president, and that kind of decline is not easily reversed. It will take years of investment to turn around the country’s beleaguered oil sector.
But whoever emerges as the next leader of Venezuela, an OPEC member that sits on the world’s second-largest oil reserves, will have a powerful economic incentive to make that a top priority.
Exports fell from 3 million barrels per day in 2000 to 1.7 million barrels per day in 2011.
There has been no indication from the country’s national oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A., whether it will invite more foreign investment or increase its own investment in new production. But Chavez held such sway over the company’s direction that his death means the direction could change dramatically.
“Without his charisma and force of character, it is not at all clear how his successors will maintain the system he created,” said Daniel Yergin, author of a Pulitzer Prize- winning book on global energy politics.
The discontent in Venezuela that grew with the decline of oil prices in the late 1990s helped Chavez get elected. The high oil prices that followed helped him consolidate power by allowing him to fund programs popular with Venezuelans and make allies in the region by offering cut-rate oil deals, according to Yergin.
But his refusal to reinvest in the industry, along with a strike at PDVSA in 2002 that sapped the company of some of its best talent, led to deep decay in the country’s most-important industry.