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12 things to consider from the election



Published: Thu, November 8, 2012 @ 12:01 a.m.

photo

President Barack Obama waves as he walks on stage with first lady Michelle Obama and daughters Malia and Sasha at his election night party in Chicago.

SEE ALSO: • Dow Jones drops 313 day after Obama win

• Wilson says it's unlikely he'll run again

• Why were Trumbull County election results so late?

• Cuts loom in Liberty after failure of 2 levies

By MARC KOVAC and DAVID SKOLNICK

news@vindy.com

The campaign ads have ended, but election-related debates likely will continue in the weeks and months ahead. That’s partially because the official ballot count won’t be completed until later in the month. Here are a dozen things to think about from this election’s unofficial results and what’s ahead in 2013 and 2014:

1 Turnout: 68.05 percent of Ohio’s registered voters cast ballots — 5.4 million of nearly 8 million.

That compares with 69.97 percent (5.8 million of 8.3 million) in 2008.

Turnout in Mahoning, Trumbull and Columbiana counties is currently lower than the 2008 presidential election.

Turnout in Mahoning for this election was 70.07 percent compared with 72.31 percent in 2008. The numbers in Trumbull were 65.79 percent now compared with 72.65 percent in 2008, and in Columbiana it was 68.58 percent now compared with 70.31 percent in 2008.

Highland and Clermont counties reported the highest turnout, at 96.75 percent and 92.64 percent, respectively. Both are smaller counties in southwestern Ohio near Cincinnati.

Miami County, north of Dayton, had the lowest, with just 17,018 of 70,675 voters casting ballots (24.08 percent).

2 Still to Count: There are still nearly 325,000 ballots that could be counted, though the final number likely will be much smaller.

A total of 119,535 absentee ballots remain outstanding, meaning voters requested them before Election Day but either failed to cast them, opted to vote provisionally in person Tuesday or mailed them too late for county boards to add to the unofficial count.

But as long as valid absentee ballots by mail are postmarked no later than this past Monday and arrive at a county elections board by Nov. 16, they will be counted.

An additional 205,422 ballots were cast provisionally by people who forgot their IDs, neglected to update their

registration addresses or who faced other questions about their eligibility.

The state’s big-city counties had the highest totals of the latter, with more than 30,000 in Cuyahoga and Franklin counties and 17,000-plus in Hamilton County.

3 Final Results: County election boards will begin counting provisional ballots no earlier than Nov. 17 and no later than Nov. 21. Final results must be certified by Nov. 27.

Depending on the margins in some races, the provisional and absentee ballots could swing the results. They could also trigger an automatic recount if the final differences between winners and losers are within a quarter or half percent.

4 Valley Matters: Despite only one visit during this campaign by President Barack Obama to the Mahoning Valley, the area remains a Democratic stronghold.

Mahoning County gave 63.2 percent of its vote to Obama, and the president received 60.23 percent of the vote in Trumbull County.

Obama’s margin of victory in Mahoning was the fifth largest and in Trumbull the sixth largest among the 88 counties in the state.

5 GOP Control: Republicans lost the White House, but they maintained their majority control of the Ohio Statehouse, with a 23-10 margin in the Senate and a 60-39 margin in the House.

Republicans unofficially have a net gain of one seat in the House, though the final ratio could change when additional absentee and provisional ballots are added in several races.

While Republicans did well in Columbiana County, freshman state Rep. Craig Newbold, a Republican from Columbiana, is losing his re-election bid by 383 votes to Columbiana County Treasurer Nick Barborak, a Democrat from Lisbon. There are still 1,029 provisional ballots to be considered in the race. The county recorder race, two levies and a liquor option are also very close. It’s possible the official results for those races won’t be known until early December.

The GOP retained all 15 of its seats in the Senate, with Democrats retaining three. The closest race was between incumbent Sen. Lou Gentile, a Democrat, and Republican challenger Shane Thompson in the 30th District, south of Columbiana County. Republicans thought they could wrest the seat from the minority party, but Gentile snagged nearly 53 percent of the votes in the unofficial tally.

6 Tim Ryan: Fresh off a 45-percentage-point victory, U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, a Democrat from Niles, plans in January to reclaim the House Appropriations Committee seat he lost nearly two years ago when Republicans took control of the House.

The committee oversees about $1 trillion in spending bills, and in the past, its members were often able to steer millions of dollars into their districts. Because of Democrats leaving the House at the end of the year, Ryan has the seniority to get back on the committee.

With U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, remaining on the Senate Appropriations Committee, Ryan said the two will work together to bring much-needed money for economic development and other worthy projects to the area.

7 What’s in a Name: Many are scratching their heads over the unofficial results in three races for the Ohio Supreme Court.

Two incumbents, one a Democrat and one a Republican, lost, while one other incumbent won by a big margin. They all had one thing in common: Irish-sounding last names: Terrence O’Donnell, Bill O’Neill, and Sharon Kennedy.

Justice O’Donnell had no trouble beating Michael Skindell, his opponent, by nearly 39 percentage points.

Surprisingly, Justice Robert Cupp lost by 4.62 percentage points to O’Neill, a former Warren-based 11th District Court of Appeals judge, who raised no money for his race and was seeking to join the state’s highest court for the third time.

Also, Justice Yvette McGee Brown lost by 14.54 percentage points to Kennedy, the only Ohio Supreme Court justice candidate not recommended by the state bar association in 14 years.

Stephen Brooks, associate director of the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron, said name recognition can be a deciding factor in nonpartisan judicial races, particularly in election years where public attention is focused on the presidential contest and other top-of-the-ballot contests.

Judicial races are even more challenging from a public awareness standpoint, because candidates are limited in how they present themselves to the electorate, he said.

8 Campaign Spending: Outside groups pumped millions of dollars into ads this election cycle, further evidence of a need for reform, said Sen. Brown, who topped Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel in the most-expensive Senate race in the country.

“I think voters will, in a funny sort of way, welcome beer ads, cars ads and detergent ads,” Brown said Wednesday. “I think that voters were sick of this. I think voters were particularly sick not just of the quantity but of the nature of the attack ads.

9 Focus Shift: The Ohio Democratic Party is already eyeing the next gubernatorial election, distributing signs featuring pictures of Gov. John Kasich that read “2014 Can’t Come Soon Enough” and “You’re Next.”

Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern said he expected gubernatorial candidates from his side of the aisle to make themselves known in the near future, but he was mum on any specific names.

10 Absentee Applications: Voting rights advocates complained this week that absentee ballot applications sent by the secretary of state’s office to most eligible voters caused too much confusion among the electorate.

Conversely, advocates earlier complained when Secretary of State John Husted attempted to block county boards from sending unsolicited absentee applications to voters.

11 Redistricting: The 2013 election could garner more interest than typical off-year contests, with the potential for several statewide ballot issues.

Backers of a gay marriage amendment and a right-to-work amendment have been circulating petitions for months with hopes of qualifying for the ballot.

Additionally, the Ohio Democratic Party indicated Wednesday that it may pursue another redistricting reform referendum, after the failure of Issue 2 on Tuesday.

A bipartisan legislative committee already is studying the issue and could offer a fix of its own. A separate committee reviewing the state constitution could present other changes to the process.

12 Early Voting: Republican Senate President Tom Niehaus still plans to move forward with a working group to study election-related issues and recommend law changes.

Asked Tuesday night about the issue, Niehaus said he thought Election Day ran smoothly without any major issues.

But legislation could still be offered in lame duck addressing early voting, provisional ballots and other issues that prompted debate in recent weeks.

Democrats said they are ready to block any such legislation that didn’t receive bipartisan support.

“We are well prepared to do that,” Redfern said, adding, “And frankly we’re looking for things to do, so I urge President Niehaus to not tamper with the early voting weekends.”


Comments

1IslandMike(752 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

FOUR MORE YEARS OF CRYING FROM THE RIGHT.

HILLARY 2016!!!

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2oldskool(97 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

Give it a rest Mike, Democrates wrote this story.

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3IslandMike(752 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

TOP 10 LIST for Obama's 2nd Term

1. Gets the Flag of Kenya tatood to his head.
2. Has Rapper Common play at his second inauguration.
3. Changes his last name to Mohammed
4. Includes Free Kleenex Tissues in the ObamaCare program for crying Repoobs.
5. Gets a Dental Program in place, the Repoobs need it because they just got their teeth kicked in.
6. Paints the White House Black.
7. Names Bill Ayers to head The Department of Homeland Security.
8. Has a Koran place on the nightstand in the Lincoln Bedroom.
9. Has The Lincoln Bedroom renamed The Sarah Palin and Glen Rice Love Shack.
10. Reaches accross the aisle by legalizing Oxycontin. This should make Rush Limpdick very happy

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4Georgio(26 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

BUSH's fault for four more years!

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5UticaShale(854 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

Seriously, hang on tight because the 53% really cannot support the 47% whether right or wrong. What is worse than being broke? Is when other people know your broke. The global market is about to cut up our credit card folks.

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6nodice(68 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

The dumping of investments is only the beginning. Investors know that their stocks will be worthless in Obama's second term so selling while you can only makes sense. Everyone's pension that is tied to the stock market will be worthless as well.

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7IslandMike(752 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

Why did the market go UP over 220 points the day Chief Justice Roberts and The US Supreme Court passed ObamaCare? I guess the so called 'experts' above can answer that.

Looks like the 47% grew on election night!!

"Halloween is a liberal holiday because we're teaching our children to beg for something for free. … We're teaching kids to knock on other people's doors and ask for a handout." —Fox News host Sean Hannity (October 31, 2007)

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8IslandMike(752 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

All the Super Pac spending led to, well, how do you say...........................................................................................NOTHING.
Did Karl Rove admit defeat yet? Poor Karl, he shaved all three of his chins for that special event.
The Party of HATE & FEAR got their teeth kicked in AGAIN. I love watching the FIXED NOISE CHANNEL.

FIXED NOISE PROGRAMMING FOR THE NEXT 4 YEARS:
Cry, cry, Obama bad, cry, cry.

Special thanks to Justice Roberts and Chris Christie!!

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9300(554 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

Nobs, you know how we could really improve the economy? Urban Shrimp Farming. These will actually be prawns that we're raising, but these are like crawling gold!

If that doesn't work, slumlording may be a viable alternative to keep in mind.

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10aajohns(4 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

Handouts as given in some form or another to over 47% of the population take the dignity of people and it enslaves them to the government. Thus, they literally give up their freedom for the sake of a free meal or a small handout. What was meant as a temporary safety net for people down on their luck, has become a way of life. This is what brought other countries down and we are now on the same path. And...when the bill comes due for all the trillions of dollars this government is borrowing to pay for the handouts and there is no money left from the "rich" people, the very people receiving the handouts will be rioting in the streets when they are taken away. All you have to do is look at Greece today where they are burning down buildings, rioting, looting all because they upped the full retirement age to 67. And there is so much more that is devastating to this country in terms of the freedom that is being taken from us day after day. What a tragic legacy we are giving to our children. They are the ones who will suffer when the trillions have to be repaid.

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11Bill1776(20 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

REMEMBER JANUARY 3rd, 2007. The day the democrats took over the House of Representatives and the Senate, at the very start of the 110th Congress and the The DOW Jones closed at 12,621.77
The GDP for the previous quarter was 3.5%
The Unemployment rate was 4.6%
George Bush’s Economic policies SET A RECORD of 52 STRAIGHT MONTHS of JOB CREATION!

January 3rd, 2007 was the day that Barney Frank took over the House Financial Services Committee and Chris Dodd took over the Senate Banking Committee.
The economic meltdown that happened 15 months later was in what part of the economy?
BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES!
THANK YOU DEMOCRATS (especially Barney ) for taking us from 13,000 DOW, 3.5 GDP and 4.6% Unemployment…to this CRISIS by (among MANY other things) dumping 5-6 TRILLION Dollars of toxic loans on the economy from YOUR Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac FIASCOES!

Bush asked Congress 17 times to stop Fannie & Freddie – starting in 2001 because it was financially risky for the US economy). Barney blocked it and called it a “Chicken Little Philosophy” (and the sky did fall!)
And who took the THIRD highest pay-off from Fannie Mae AND Freddie Mac? OBAMA
And who fought against reform of Fannie and Freddie?
OBAMA and the Democrat Congress, especially BARNEY!!!!
So when someone tries to blame Bush…
REMEMBER JANUARY 3rd, 2007. The day the democrats took over the House of Representatives and the Senate and caused the problem.

Former democrat, now an independent.

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12IslandMike(752 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

The ENTIRE FIXED NOISE NETWORK is on a suicide watch. They were going to send the fire department to save them, but they're part of the 47% along with police, teachers, military personnel, trash collectors, highway workers etc...
You know, those 'freeloaders' who all live off the government.

HILLARY 2016!!!

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13ELJenkins(9 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

Well stated, bill1176. It's starting to seem like the entire party has gone off their rockers. I feel like I'm doing a social injustice by voting for a republican, but they are seemingly the one ones with a bit of sense left. Unfortunately, some people only hear what they want to hear and continue on their delusional path. I think it's time to abandon the party system, because labels have gotten in the way of progress.

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14blutarsky(25 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

you tell them island my man mike! those republican suckers lost and we won. they tried taking my unemployment extensions and lost, then they tried taking my disability and they lost! suckers. let them work and support us! we fought thier wars now its time fot them to let us take a free ride! im gonna go blow a joint to celebrate my man obamas win against those flag wavin, usa chantin scum bags. HILLARY 2016!!!!

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15blutarsky(25 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

The ENTIRE FIXED NOISE NETWORK is on a suicide watch. They were going to send the fire department to save them, but they're part of the 47% along with police, teachers, military personnel, trash collectors, highway workers etc...
You know, those 'freeloaders' who all live off the government AMEN ISLAND.....who cares about being rated #1 for 10 years they blow! everyone on that network lies! we got cnn and msnbc to back us. 47% is bull, i mean me and my friends dont work but were in the minority, i know plenty of people that work. stupid republicans. HILLARY 2016!!!

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16uselesseater(229 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

This might be the one election where people threatened to expatriate might be onto something advantageous to actually act on.

Obamacare will take a family like mine and smack us with $12k out of pocket a year. Who has 12k to blow every year on anything, let alone some insurance you may never use?

What frivolous waste could I enjoy for a $1k+ a month payment? A nice sporty car in the garage? A fancy vacation? Half a block of homes in the Ytown ghetto?

Nah, instead the IRS and government want to anally probe me and check me for insurance.

Folks here, even the dumb ones are much smarter than the unwashed masses who don't read words and instead watch TV and have their world performed for them instead. Voting for Obama part deuce, sure lunacy.

"Halloween is a liberal holiday because we're teaching our children to beg for something for free. … We're teaching kids to knock on other people's doors and ask for a handout."

That's partially true and we are doing so while our children are masked and veiled. Encouraging them to take sugar (which is proven to lower IQ) and other delightfuls from strangers. A very strange ritual.

Halloween comes from Samhain, a Celtic day of significance and dabbles into spirits and the dead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samhain

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17blutarsky(25 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

WHATEVER uselesseater. me and islandmike know you just watch fixnews and dream about sara palin. you shouldn't be aloud to have that extra money when people like me and islandmike need it. rich people like you republicans who work need to share your wealth like mr. obama said. and by the way, halloween is great. i ate all my kids candy after i took them trick or treating in your rich neighborhood. you can cry and watech fix news for the next for years cause free heath care is here. HILLARY 2016

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18IslandMike(752 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

No FREE Health Care, just the FACT that Americans are paying out a much higher percentage of the GDP than any other country on the face of the earth and no one is living any longer. How are we supposed to copntinue to compete in a global economy when we are paying a higher percentage of our GDP than any other country? BOTH sides have said we need HC reform and the repubs had the numbers in Congress when Bush was in office and did NOTHING! Now Obama has passed what is essentially RomneyCare and the right has done nothing but paint themselves in a corner over it, heck they even painted Romney in a corner over it. The Affordable Care Act is going to save the country, it IS the economy.

HILLARY 2016!!!!

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19uselesseater(229 comments)posted 1 year, 10 months ago

Go figure out @IslandMike when Health Care went wrong in this country.

You have to go back to HMO's and Nixon era.

It went foul and expensive when government got involved back then. More government = more expense. This Obamacare or Romneycare will only perpetuate the same plan. Make mo' money fo' the rich.

Ask your mama and papa what granny and gramps did back in the 1960's or prior -- for medical care.

Bet they didn't have insurance. Bet they didn't incur gazillion dollar treatment bills and eat thousands of dollars a month of drugs like PEZ.

Unsure why everyone needs oh sh!t insurance and demand you and I pay dearly for it every month until we are shoveled into the ground.

I refuse to pay for things I don't use. It's senseless.

Only average morons who won't spend the time to read the legislation and who do not have paid advisers will be taxed and stomped by Obama Care. That would be the middle class and aspiring. Then you have legions of small businesses who no longer will be able to afford employees. Oops!

Funny I think, people cry about medical bills, but they have no problem buying that average $35k+ automobile, and often several per household of those.

Somewhere in this country we lost the idea of what freedom is. Freedom to be left alone is implicit in freedom. Government, whether Liberal or Conservative that encroaches upon the freedom to be left alone is one that needs dealt with.

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