Golden Globes WHO WILL WIN?


By RAFER GUZMAN

Tonight’s ceremony will see some fierce competition.

Matt Damon against Daniel Day-Lewis. Sandra Bullock versus a trove of newcomers. And Meryl Streep battles herself.

Tonight’s 67th Golden Globe Awards ceremony promises some fierce competition, though the show’s first solo host in 14 years, Ricky Gervais, will probably keep the mood light.

And while the Globes are often viewed as predictors of the Academy Awards, this year may be a little different for the all- important best-picture Oscar, which is being expanded to 10 nominees, up from the usual five.

Here’s your scorecard:

Best Motion Picture/Drama

Nominees: “Avatar”; “The Hurt Locker”; “Inglourious Basterds”; “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”; “Up in the Air”

Should win: “Avatar.” It’s technology over substance, but the movie’s sheer scope and ambition are undeniable.

Will win: “Up in the Air,” which leads the pack with six nominations and a timely recession theme.

Actress/Drama

Nominees: Emily Blunt, “The Young Victoria”; Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”; Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”; Carey Mulligan, “An Education”; Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”

Should win: Carey Mulligan, irresistible as a young girl seduced by an older man.

Will win: Mulligan. But Bullock, as a Southerner who adopts a black teenager, could steal it.

Actor/Drama

Nominees: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”; George Clooney, “Up in the Air”; Colin Firth, “A Single Man”; Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”; Tobey Maguire, “Brothers”

Should win: Firth, playing a suicidal gay man in 1962, delivered the most moving performance of any actor this year.

Will win: The glamorous Mr. Clooney is the shoo-in. But Bridges, utterly convincing as a washed-up country singer, has an outside chance.

Best Motion Picture/Musical or Comedy

Nominees: “[500] Days of Summer”; “The Hangover”; “It’s Complicated”; “Julie & Julia”; “Nine”

Should win: “Julie & Julia,” mostly for Streep’s delightfully dotty incarnation of celebrity chef Julia Child.

Will win: “Julie & Julia.”

Actress/Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Sandra Bullock, “The Proposal”; Marion Cotillard, “Nine”; Julia Roberts, “Duplicity”; Meryl Streep, “It’s Complicated”; Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Should win: Streep for “Julie & Julia.”

Will win: Her only real competition is herself, but Streep will take it for “Julie & Julia.”

Actor/Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Matt Damon, “The Informant!”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “Nine”; Robert Downey Jr., “Sherlock Holmes”; Joseph Gordon-Levitt, “[500] Days of Summer”; Michael Stuhlbarg, “A Serious Man”

Should win: Although “The Informant!” was a middling movie, Damon was terrific as a slippery schlub.

Will win: Day-Lewis. He wasn’t very good as a womanizing Italian, but Globe voters clearly liked “Nine” — it earned five nominations.

Actress/Supporting

Nominees: Penelope Cruz, “Nine”; Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”; Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”; Mo’Nique, “Precious”; Julianne Moore, “A Single Man”

Should win: Mo’Nique, a comedian who transformed herself into an abusive monster.

Will win: Mo’Nique. She has lately softened her supposed stance against award campaigning.

Actor/Supporting

Nominees: Matt Damon, “Invictus”; Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”; Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”; Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”; Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Should win: Waltz. Playing WWII’s happiest Nazi, this Austrian unknown stole Quentin Tarantino’s entire movie.

Will win: Waltz, hands down.

Animated Feature

Nominees: “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs”; “Coraline”; “Fantastic Mr. Fox”; “The Princess and the Frog”; “Up”

Should win: “Fantastic Mr. Fox.” Wes Anderson used stop-motion to create another of his unique, visually witty worlds.

Will win: “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” even though Pixar (“Up”) has taken this award every year since its introduction.

Director

Nominees: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”; James Cameron, “Avatar”; Clint Eastwood, “Invictus”; Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”; Quentin Tarantino, “Inglorious Basterds”

Should win: Bigelow, whose explosive style made “The Hurt Locker” the most bruising war film of the decade.

Will win: Though she won’t win for best picture, Bigelow will take this one.

Host: Ricky Gervais, below, will host the 67th annual Golden Globe awards at the Beverly Hilton Hotel. The show will air live at 8 tonight on NBC.

Presenters: The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which puts on the Globes, said Kate Hudson, Ashton Kutcher, Zoe Saldana and Amy Adams will serve as presenters at tonight’s ceremony. Other presenters include Cameron Diaz, Josh Brolin, Christina Aguilera, Colin Farrell, Julia Roberts, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jodie Foster, Mel Gibson, Sophia Loren and Cher.

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