Northeast quadrant gives edge to Obama

By DAVID SKOLNICK

VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER

YOUNGSTOWN — For Arlene Mathes of Newton Falls, the choice for president is clear.

Mathes, who retired from Delphi Packard in 1999 after 31 years there, is voting for Democrat Barack Obama, saying he’s for “working-class people.”

Obama is “going to try to help with health care, gas prices, food prices,” she said. “I don’t know how people can afford to live. We need a strong leader.”

Mathes was among 869 likely Ohio voters interviewed by telephone between Sept. 12 and Tuesday for The Ohio Newspaper Poll.

The poll is a partnership between the Ohio News Organization — consisting of the state’s eight largest daily newspapers, including The Vindicator — and the University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research.

The poll, with a 3.3 percent margin of error, shows Republican John McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 42 percent.

McCain leads Obama in every geographic region of the state except Northeast Ohio. Obama leads in that region, which includes the Mahoning Valley, 49 percent to 40 percent.

With a large number of Democrats in the Valley and the Cleveland area, Mark Munroe, the Mahoning County Republican Party’s vice chairman, said 40 percent for McCain in Northeast Ohio is encouraging.

Among McCain’s supporters in the Valley are Bob Coggeshall of Youngstown and Jeremy Miller of Austintown, who participated in the poll.

Coggeshall, a 63-year-old retired bank executive who now works part-time as a naturalist, is supporting McCain because of his experience and bipartisanship.

“His willingness to reach across the aisle and his genuine willingness to do what’s best for the country” is why he’s supporting him, he said.

Miller, a 29-year-old commercial truck tire salesman and self-described conservative Republican, said he’s supporting McCain even though he views the candidate as a moderate.

Both said McCain wasn’t their first choice for president — with Miller saying the Arizona senator was at the bottom of his list among Republicans — but he’s a better choice than Obama.

“I haven’t been impressed with anything Obama says,” Miller said “He’s an eloquent speaker and he says nothing better than anyone I’ve ever heard.”

Only 19 percent of those polled said they might change their mind about who they’d vote for between now and Election Day.

Of those polled, 53 percent said the phrase “personally likable” best describes Obama compared to 28 percent for McCain.

In Northeast Ohio, the percentage was even greater for Obama, 59 percent to 24 percent for McCain.

But when asked who was better qualified to be president, McCain received support statewide from 50 percent compared to 32 percent for Obama. Even in Northeast Ohio, McCain has more support than Obama when that question was asked, 42 percent to 37 percent.

“Obama would fit in better with a group of my friends than John McCain,” Miller said. “I like the guy. I just personally disagree with him.”

Lisa Antonini, Mahoning County Democratic chairwoman, said a well-liked candidate is a huge factor for voters.

“People will tend to vote for the candidate they can relate to,” she said. “Barack Obama should feel good with that number. Qualifications will be a factor, but ultimately it’s likability.”

When asked who best understands the problems facing Ohio, 46 percent said Obama, with 39 percent going with McCain.

The gap between the two is wider among those in Northeast Ohio, where 53 percent went with Obama compared with 33 percent for McCain.

A majority of those polled — 57 percent — said the fact that Obama is black won’t make a difference to voters. A smaller majority — 51 percent — said McCain’s being age 72 won’t make a difference to voters.

Coggershall, Miller and Mathes said race and age aren’t factors to them.

Race has been mentioned as a reason why some white voters don’t support Obama.

He trails McCain 55 percent to 34 percent among whites.

Obama has the support of 98 percent of the 85 blacks surveyed in the poll. McCain didn’t have the support of any black voters. The other two percent were split between two other candidates.

“We always knew the African-American vote would be behind Obama,” Munroe said. “It’s a historic campaign. But 85 people is a small sample. That doesn’t mean no blacks are voting for McCain.”

Antonini said blacks have traditionally voted in large numbers for Democratic candidates, and she said she thinks that having Obama as the presidential candidate is “very exciting” for black Americans.

skolnick@vindy.com