Has Ohio changed in the past two years?

By Bertram de Souza

Has Ohio changed in the past two years?

When Democrats in Ohio go to the polls Tuesday, the votes they cast in the hotly contested race for the Democratic nomination for president may well determine the party’s standard-bearer for the November general election.

And, just as Ohio has become a must-win state in the primary, it will undoubtedly enjoy that status in the general election. In 2004, President Bush’s victory in the Buckeye State over Democrat John Kerry gave him a second term.

Thus, Democrats should ask themselves the following question when they cast their ballots Tuesday: Will Ohio vote for a black man in the general election?

No, the question isn’t designed to feed the flames of racism because the leading contender for the nomination, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, is biracial — a black father and a white mother.

The 2006 general election for governor of Ohio justifies such inquiry about the attitude of voters.

Two years ago, then Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell won the Republican primary for governor on the strength of his qualifications and his conservative credentials. Blackwell, a former mayor of Cincinnati, former undersecretary at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Human Rights Commission, and former state treasurer, had served as Bush’s co-chairman in Ohio in ’04. He also led the campaign for a constitutional amendment that defined marriage as between a man and a woman. The intent was to block homosexual couples from receiving the same benefits as heterosexual ones.

Blackwell was the darling of the conservative right in the state — as was Bush.

Primary victory

Thus, he went into the 2006 general election with a full head of steam after defeating a well-known statewide Republican officeholder, Jim Petro, attorney general at the time, in the GOP primary.

But in the fall, Blackwell came face-to-face with political reality. He was up against Democrat Ted Strickland, a congressman from the 6th District that includes a part of Mahoning County and Columbiana County. Strickland had represented a district in southern Ohio, but redistricting caused him to move his residence from Lucasville to Lisbon.

On Nov. 5, 2006, in this space, the pre-election column included the following paragraph: “ ... given the significant margins [in the polls] Strickland has enjoyed for months, the issue of J. Kenneth Blackwell’s being black must be explored. Why? Because there can be no other explanation for Blackwell, currently Ohio’s secretary of state, failing to get traction even with mainstream Republicans.”

And then there was this: “It isn’t a stretch to believe that Ohio is not ready for a black to occupy the mansion.”

Thus the question today: Has Ohio changed in the past two years so Obama could carry the state if he is the Democratic presidential nominee?

It is instructive that two years ago, there were two other statewide black candidates, Atty. Ben Espy, who was seeking a seat on the Ohio Supreme Court, and Barbara Sykes, who sought the state auditor’s position.

Espy and Sykes are Democrats — but they lost, even though Democrats won all but one statewide administrative office.

Coalition

If Obama wins Tuesday’s primary, his followers will argue that he put together a coalition of blacks and whites, rich and poor, educated and uneducated to defeat U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton.

But as Blackwell found out, there is a difference between a party primary and a general election in terms of who participates and who stays home.

There’s speculation that Ohio could see a large number of Republicans, who are relegated to putting their stamp of approval on U.S. Sen. John McCain, switch Tuesday and vote in the Democratic primary — for Obama.

If that occurs, it would be foolish to conclude that these GOPers have seen the light and now believe in a colorblind society.

Republicans want Obama on the general election ballot in November because they know that a majority of Ohioans in the general election won’t vote for a black for president.